Joe Biden’s political future is a matter of huge concern to all who care about democracy, progressive values and the security of the western world. The 81-year-old US president’s disastrous TV debate performance, followed by more excruciating gaffes last week, has fed a long-simmering political and media obsession with his fitness to serve a second term. Like ravenous vultures, his enemies scrap over the bones of an old man.
To some extent, Biden has brought this on himself. He and his advisers, including the first lady, Jill Biden, have spent months batting away legitimate questions about his apparently impaired cognitive abilities. This denial that a problem even exists, coupled with a flat refusal to address it, has done him no favours. Biden blamed his debate debacle on jet lag, then on a cold. He admits he does not speak as well as he did, but claims that “age brings wisdom”.
Revelations that a medical expert on Parkinson’s disease visited the White House eight times in 2023-24 and held at least one meeting with Biden’s personal physician have fuelled suspicions that the public is not being told the whole story. But Biden continues, unwisely, to try to shrug it off, joking that he undergoes a neurological examination each day due to the exacting nature of his job.
This lack of candour smacks of disrespect for supporters and fundraisers, some of whom are now withholding cash. People are not stupid. The contrast between the Biden of four years ago and today’s frail-looking, robotically stiff and occasionally physically and verbally stumbling figure is striking. Vermont senator Peter Welch was right when he said people “cannot unsee” what they saw in the debate. He is urging Biden to step aside. Most voters – 74% in one poll – agree that he is too old to be an effective leader for the next four years.
Cliched allusions to classical Greek tragedy, King Lear and various historical parallels abound as commentators compete to describe this extraordinary spectacle of a modern-day Caesar defying his own mortality. But it is by no means fanciful to suggest that a president with a successful legislative record, who led a strong post-pandemic economic recovery and helped create millions of jobs, now risks being remembered not for his achievements but as a stubborn egoist whose hubris allowed the tyrant, Donald Trump, back in.
National polling undertaken over many months and surveys of so-called battleground or swing states tell a consistent story: Trump is ahead almost everywhere. The raised cost of living and voter bugbears such as crime and fuel prices have certainly had an impact, as has deep social and cultural polarisation. But age is a key, perhaps the key factor. The bottom line is clear: Biden’s re-election bid is in deep trouble. So, too, by extension, is the US.
For this is no ordinary election, for reasons far removed from Biden’s fitness. It’s unique in the modern era, in that Americans and the world know, based on grim prior experience, what a Trump presidency may entail. Except that this time around it will be worse.
Biden says Trump poses an existential threat to US democracy – and he’s right. Trump tried to overthrow the 2020 election result. He attempted to nobble electoral officials. He says he will act as a dictator “on day one” in office, has warned of a “bloodbath” if he loses again, and is vowing revenge on judges, prosecutors and others he dislikes. Trump is a convicted felon, sexual abuser and fraudster. He believes he’s above the law.
For Britain and other US allies, the thought of a second Trump term is troubling. Keir Starmer’s new Labour government can expect nothing but political and ideological hostility from this ultra-nationalist, xenophobic hawk. For the EU, for Palestine, for global tariff-free trade, for the UN, for international cooperation more broadly, Trump #2 would be massively destructive.
And then there’s Ukraine. Trump, a keen admirer of Vladimir Putin and dictators generally, claims he could end the war overnight. What he actually means is that he would put pressure on Kyiv to accept a permanent loss of territory to Russia in return for peace. It would be the greatest of betrayals, it would set a terrible precedent for Taiwan and similar disputes, and it could trigger the collapse of Nato. US credibility would be shot.
The stakes could hardly be higher, which is why allowing Biden to continue to indulge his fantasy that only he can beat Trump is plainly irresponsible. There are at least half a dozen potential Democratic presidential candidates with the ability to win in November, starting with the vice-president, Kamala Harris. There is time before the party convention opens in Chicago on 19 August to hold mini-primaries or town hall debates to select a nominee, as suggested by the Democratic strategist James Carville.
And there is still an option for Biden to step graciously aside and thus secure his legacy, content in the knowledge of a job well done. The current situation is unsustainable. It is not just about the next four months. It’s about the next four years. The Trump menace looms larger by the day. Every Biden appearance is scrutinised for mental lapses, gaffes and blunders. There will certainly be more. And each is a gift to Trump.
Right now, Democrats face the worst of all worlds: a candidate who will not quit but cannot win. As long as Biden clings heedlessly to the helm – to invert Labour’s winning 1997 campaign anthem – things can only get worse.
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