There is nothing quite like watching a motivated Nikola Jokić play basketball.
At his best, the Serbian superstar seldom jumps more than several inches off the floor, and he’s still in complete control. In the current NBA’s pantheon of elite talent, no one else has the capacity for the same positive impact as Jokić because of his ability to create absurd passing lanes, his dominance in the post, and his underrated defensive hands. It is this version of Jokić that makes the reigning NBA champion Denver Nuggets look unbeatable. No one is beating Denver in a best-of-seven series if Jokić is bringing his A-game every night. No one.
But after the Phoenix Suns snapped the Nuggets’ six-game winning streak out of the All-Star break by wearing Jokić down, it’s worth wondering when they should start prioritizing maintenance of his health and energy in the coming postseason over pursuit of the Western Conference’s top seed. It’s easily the biggest question about their championship repeat hopes.
Because when Jokić is tired and frustrated, he leaves nothing to doubt. He wears it all on his sleeve:
Nikola Jokic was BEGGING Michael Malone to challenge this 😂
— ClutchPoints (@ClutchPoints) March 6, 2024
To the Nuggets’ credit, they seem to understand the delicate balance they have to strike with Jokić and his teammates in the coming weeks. Head coach Mike Malone has already expressed that Denver will not pull out all the stops to have home-court advantage throughout the West playoffs if it means the Nuggets players are worn down in the process.
At a certain point, having a revitalized playoff rotation takes precedence over potentially having one extra home game in every series in the spring.
Michael Malone on the Nuggets: "The #1 seed is not the most important thing to us. Being healthy is the most important thing to us."
— Matt Brooks (@MattBrooksNBA) February 23, 2024
The numbers bear out this conclusion.
Between Jokić, Jamal Murray, Aaron Gordon, Michael Porter Jr., and Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Denver has arguably the NBA’s finest starting five. This group will likely average 40 minutes each night in the postseason, just like during last year’s championship journey, assuaging some of the concerns about Denver’s thin bench once again.
When the Nuggets have had all five players available this year, they have a sterling 30-9 record. That is the equivalent of a 63-win pace in an 82-game regular-season. It would be in relative lockstep with the league-leading Boston Celtics, a deeper team some paint as this year’s title favorite and whom Denver might square off against in the NBA Finals.
But even while each member of Denver’s starting five plays a pivotal role on a night-to-night basis, none of its operation works nearly quite as well without their 6-foot-11, 284-pound Serbian engine — Jokić.
According to Cleaning the Glass, with Jokić on the floor, Denver is, on average, 10.7 points better per 100 possessions. Per StatMuse, they also have a 131.3 offensive rating and 109.1 defensive rating when he’s playing. That is not sustainable, but it’s worth noting to measure the numerical distinction between Denver’s infamous “non-Jokić minutes” and when the best player in the world is doing things like this against all-worldly defenders:
Jokić beats the shot clock and banks it in 🤯 pic.twitter.com/W75hDXOci6
— NBA TV (@NBATV) March 3, 2024
From a schematic and chemistry standpoint, it’s not hard to see why the Nuggets’ advanced numbers with Jokić on and off the floor are so stark.
Murray is a terrific No. 2 scoring option on a defending champion, but he’s not nearly the same player if opposing defenses don’t respect Jokić’s gravity in their go-to two-man game. Gordon has mastered the “dunker” role on the baseline, but he still needs his unofficial mind-meld with Jokić to hum to get his requisite plays at the rim. Porter Jr. is one of the better 3-point shooters in the league, but someone like Jokić must consistently create space for him in rhythm for open shots. As a three-and-defense guard with more understated responsibilities on the other end of the court, Caldwell-Pope might be the Nuggets’ starter least reliant on their MVP’s play. Still, it’d be silly to assert a locked-in Jokić doesn’t make him look better, too.
If Jokić is firing on all cylinders, the Nuggets are an unmitigated juggernaut, a finely tuned machine that is beyond intimidating in the clutch. If Jokić is exhausted or mentally checked out, the Nuggets are still good but not great, and they are just flawed enough to meekly bow out.
The Nuggets have grabbed an NBA-best 20 wins in the clutch after tonight's victory against the Lakers.
They're leading the NBA with a 24.9 crunchtime net rating. Denver leads the NBA in clutch defensive rating, as well.
It is very, very hard to beat this team in close games.
— Matt Brooks (@MattBrooksNBA) March 3, 2024
This brings me back to Malone intently reading his best player and his team.
It would be absurd to assert that the Nuggets didn’t benefit from having home-court advantage in all four series en route to their first championship in franchise history last spring. Because of its altitude, Denver is notoriously one of the most challenging places to play in the NBA. As a result, the Nuggets almost always have one of the best home records in the league. It’s no coincidence they lost just once in their arena en route to that fateful title. It would be a significant boon to potentially have that advantage again this year by snatching away the No. 1 seed from the rival Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves.
Updated West Standings ‼️
Pelicans and Suns win, sit in 5th and 6th
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📲 https://t.co/oRfhdB8ZfO pic.twitter.com/7CaWktRy6p— NBA (@NBA) March 6, 2024
But an experienced team like Denver is past the point of pushing the pedal to the metal in the regular season. After playing 20 extra games in last year’s playoffs, it is obvious even to the casual observer that Jokić and the Nuggets have felt the grind of the regular season much more than they have in the past. They will not hesitate to conserve themselves for the approximate six weeks of postseason play necessary to repeat as champions if they have to. Never mind that they have proven they can win on the road when they must. A solid 6-3 road record — including both games in Miami in the Finals — in last year’s playoffs says as much.
Heck, they even had this approach last year. After amassing a 42-18 record, the Nuggets turned off the jets and only went 11-11 the rest of the way. They rested Jokić in five of their last seven regular-season games, effectively giving him nearly three weeks to refresh and restore himself before the playoffs. It was likely a big reason why they were the last team standing and why Jokić ended up enjoying a historic postseason.
The only real difference between the stretch run this year and 2023 is that Denver could put itself in neutral while in an incredibly comfortable position as the No. 1 seed. The competition is just better this year, and that’s OK.
Because when push comes to shove, the Nuggets will likely have to deploy a similar strategy with their Serbian talisman. They will have to protect Jokić from himself, giving him more rest down the stretch than he might be comfortable with to ensure the best possible version of him will be present in the playoffs. Having that version of him is more important than keeping home-court throughout. That is, if the Nuggets want back-to-back titles.
