A lot of people will tell you that in the NFL these days, running backs don’t matter.
It might be more accurate to say that running backs don’t matter — until they do.
After two straight seasons of leading the NFL in carries, rushing yards, and rushing touchdowns, Derrick Henry of the Titans missed the last nine games of the 2021 regular season with a foot injury, returning for his team’s divisional round loss to the Bengals. When Henry was on the field last season, the Titans had an Offensive EPA of 0.08. Without him? -0.1. Tennessee had a Passing EPA of 0.15 with Henry, and -0.11 without, a Rushing EPA of 0.03 with, and -0.09 without.
Henry’s absence didn’t just affect the run game. Ryan Tannehill completed 68.1% of his passes for 1,185 yards, seven touchdowns, and three interceptions with Henry. Without Henry, Tannehill completed 66.7% Of his passes for 2262 yards, 10 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. Without Henry, Tannehill’s EPA per attempt plummeted from 0.23 to 0.1.
With Henry on the field, Tannehill faced a loaded box (seven or more defenders) on a league-high 127 dropbacks. Without Henry, Tannehill faced a loaded box on 120 of his dropbacks, which ranked third in the league. From Week 13 through the end of the regular season, Tannehill had 69 dropbacks against loaded boxes, which ranked eighth. As Henry’s disappearance became more pronounced, opponents altered their strategies. Which happens when your most valuable player isn’t around to be that valuable.
Here, for your perusal, are the 11 most valuable running backs in the NFL today. Not all of them define their offenses, but there are more of those tentpole guys than you may imagine, given what you keep hearing about the value of the modern back. We also have links to all the position lists Mark Schofield and myself have done to date, leading up to next week’s list of the 101 best players in the NFL today.
The NFL’s top 12 slot defenders
The NFL’s top 12 outside cornerbacks
The NFL’s top 11 edge defenders
The NFL’s top 12 interior defensive linemen
The NFL’s top 12 offensive guards
The NFL’s top 12 offensive tackles
The NFL’s top 11 slot receivers
The NFLs top 16 wide receivers
(All advanced metrics courtesy of Sports Info Solutions, Pro Football Focus, and Football Outsiders unless otherwise indicated).
