There’s nothing to glean from the end of the New England Patriots’ 2023. If you’re a die hard fan, only disappointment awaits. If you’re a casual observer, any satisfaction gained from a stout defense serves to have its legs kicked out from underneath by a truly inept defense. If you’re watching for sheer trainwreck potential there isn’t even that; the Patriots are horribly bad, but rarely entertainingly so. Mac Jones isn’t getting stiff-armed into oblivion after a horrible lateral-filled game-losing play. He’s just sitting on the bench while Bailey Zappe does his impression of an NFL quarterback.
Thus we’re left with this. A December Thursday Night Football game with Bill Belichick’s team filling the void vacated by the Jacksonville Jaguars. When they make the trip to what was once Heinz Field in Week 14, the Patriots might as well be wearing urine-colored uniforms.
This has pushed Belichick to uncharted waters. The future Hall of Famer had never had back-to-back losing seasons with the Patriots. He’s already locked in to that one thanks to New England’s 2-10 record. He’s never lost more than 11 games in a season and hasn’t even done that since 2000. This is all not only very bad but also a consequence of his own inability to draft viable foundational talent or return Mac Jones to anything resembling his useful 2021 form.
That’s left him facing questions about his future, which is not something we’d ever expected to hear about a man with eight Super Bowl rings but, hooooo buddy, have you watched the Patriots this year? Don’t worry, you’ll get them on Thursday night vs. Mitch Trubisky and the Pittsburgh Steelers. We’ll all be aching for retirement or just generally a life away from football after that.
Of course, Belichick isn’t the only head coach on the hot seat. Josh McDaniels and Frank Reich have already been relieved of their duties. Here are the guys who could join them on Black Monday. This list excludes Belichick since he’ll likely be given the option to retire, but features five others ranked in ascending odds of impending unemployment.
5
Mike Vrabel, Tennessee Titans
Vrabel is not a bad coach. He helped revive Ryan Tannehill’s career, made a smashmouth, RB1-heavy offense viable again in the NFL and, importantly, is responsible for half the franchise’s playoff wins since 2002.
But his style of play has an expiration date, and that’s quickly closing in. Tannehill’s efficiency has declined behind center and he’s since been replaced by Will Levis, who hasn’t yet proven he is or isn’t a franchise quarterback. Derrick Henry continues to churn out tough yardage but his carries per game are down 11 from his 2021 peak and his 1.8 yards after contact are by far a career low. A defense that once reliably generated chaos currently ranks 30th in turnovers generated.
That has Vrabel staring down his second-straight losing season and the Titans on the brink of a rebuild that may happen without him. He’s never faced scrutiny like this, and it goes beyond the 4-8 record he’s racked up through 13 weeks. A post-Henry Titans is going to look very different than the ones that hung around long enough to shock opponents and once won the AFC’s lone postseason bye.
Is that a team Vrabel can lead? Can he wring maximum potential out of second round rookie Levis at quarterback? Will he get a pass for a defense that, for the third time in four seasons, doesn’t rank in the top half of all NFL units in overall DVOA?
The Titans have to come up with something to sell in 2024. Vrabel’s meat-and-potatoes resume may not be enough.
Of course, the dare to dream version is that Vrabel leaves on good terms to take over for Belichick in New England. I’m not saying that’s gonna happen, but it makes great fan fiction.
4
Sean McDermott, Buffalo Bills
There’s a chance management believes McDermott has hit his ceiling with the team. The Bills have made a remarkable turnaround over the last five seasons given the state of the franchise after Marv Levy’s late-1990s departure. Buffalo has made the playoffs five times this millennium and McDermott is responsible for all five trips.
He’s also responsible for just four postseason wins. Odds aren’t in his favor to even get the chance for a fifth; the New York Times pegs the 6-6 Bills’ playoff odds at a scant 14 percent with five weeks to play. His aging defense was ravaged by injury once more and, this time, McDermott seems unable to overcome the handicap.
Would that be enough to fire one of the franchise’s most successful head coaches? McDermott has won 72 games in Buffalo. No one since Levy has even *gotten* to 72 total games before getting tossed. His .624 winning percentage is the highest in franchise history.
That’s a compelling argument in his favor, but the fact remains McDermott has been so good he’s reset expectations in western New York. Just getting to the playoffs with Josh Allen on the roster isn’t enough. Missing them? That may just be a fireable offense, especially with a defensive overhaul looming.
3
Brandon Staley, Los Angeles Chargers
Staley earned a win in Week 13, which is good. He also managed six points in the process, which is not.
The embattled head coach continues to make his Chargers a sum less than the value of its parts. Justin Herbert is a top 10 quarterback this season by most metrics. He’s stuck piloting a 5-7 team with the slimmest of playoff hopes because there’s so little reliable help around him.
It would be tempting to say last year’s Wild Card loss, in which Los Angeles blew a 27-0 lead to the Jacksonville Jaguars, was what broke this team a la Matt Nagy and the double doink back in 2018. But that isn’t the case. This is pretty much who Staley has always been, a gambler who finds the right opportunity to lay a bet, then makes the exact wrong wager.
That’s manifested in inefficient challenges, fourth down risks that fail to pay off and frustrating playcalling. While Herbert has been solid despite injuries to key contributors — Mike Williams is out for the rest of the season and Austin Ekeler clearly hasn’t been the same runner after an early ankle injury — it hasn’t mattered. Staley, a man with a background coaching defenses, has once again fielded a unit that fails to crack the top 20 in overall defensive DVOA.
Even when his gambits do pay off, like replacing Joe Lombardi with Kellen Moore at offensive coordinator, they don’t seem to make a difference. He is the governor plate on what should be a high octane team. We expect the Chargers to be beset by whatever dumb nonsense and awful luck the football gods have in store for them. But Staley has committed the cardinal sin of making the Chargers boring as well as bad.
You shouldn’t get to come back from that.
2
Matt Eberflus, Chicago Bears
The Bears are 3-3 in their last six games which, for this team, feels like an accomplishment. But those wins came against a fading Joshua Dobbs, the Carolina Panthers and a disinterested Las Vegas Raiders team waiting to fire Josh McDaniels. They only count in so much as their ability to muck up Chicago’s draft standing in 2024.
That standing is a big reason why Eberflus remains untenable despite any recent modest success. The Bears have the Panthers’ first round pick, which currently stands to be the top overall selection and has a 90 percent chance of landing among the top two. Their own pick currently slots in fifth and is just one loss away from overtaking the Washington Commanders for fourth. There’s going to be another influx of young talent arriving for a team mired in rebuilding mode.
Eberflus is not the guy Chicago wants in charge this time around. He had his shot with Justin Fields and has failed even up against the soft expectations of a young roster without proven talent. His minor improvements haven’t put the Bears anywhere near the playoff race, though they have helped set the table for his replacement. His handling of Fields — mitigating risk by taking designed runs off the table and plying him with screen passes — has been something that works on paper but remains wildly frustrating to watch on the field.
This all suggests a fresh start is necessary. Eberflus hasn’t proven he can consistently win or garner the confidence of his fanbase. It’ll take something approaching a miracle — say rallying to the playoffs despite a 2-7 start — to keep him in Chicago.
1
Ron Rivera, Washington Commanders
Rivera has to know what’s coming. He was asked to oversee a roster that sold off key parts at the trade deadline with its eye on a rebuild. He’s coaching for a brand new team owner who didn’t hire him and would like nothing more than to erase the many, many mistakes of Washington’s past as quickly as possible. He’s also 26-36-1 with the Commanders without a single winning season in four years at the helm.
This is all a very rough sled for a respected former two-time NFL Coach of the Year. Rivera did his job and added a thin sheen of respectability to a franchise whose reputation was roughly on par with crypto’s scammiest memecoins. He took Washington to the playoffs and coaxed useful production from overlooked young prospects.
But he also failed to generate big returns from guys with big names and lofty ceilings. Former high value draft picks like Chase Young, Emmanuel Forbes, Jahan Dotson, Phidarian Mathis, Jamin Davis and Antonio Gibson were unable to realize their potential under Rivera in Washington. Will that have a lasting effect on his legacy when other teams are vetting him for a new job? Or will other teams shrug, give him credit for making a Dan Snyder team something other than an endless fount of sadness, and hope to tap into the success he had with the mid-2010s Carolina Panthers?
