Week 6’s game between the New York Jets and Green Bay Packers wasn’t supposed to be gridiron art. Few could have expected just how ugly it would get for Aaron Rodgers and his team.
The Packers fell to 3-3 by virtue of a 27-10 frogstomping in an mostly-regrettable display of football at Lambeau Field. Suddenly, in the middle of a ramshackle and winnable NFC, Green Bay appears ready to cede its playoff invitation. The Packers had a clear path to 5-1 after beating the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 4 and staring down back-to-back games against New York franchises with one playoff appearance between them since 2012. Instead of fulfilling the “Ws” fans had penciled in back in August, Rodgers’ team fell flat on its face.
In years past, Rodgers might have been able to hand-wave away concerns with a chippy soundbyte before pressing forward to double-digit wins and a little Wisconsin confidence before the team fell on its face in the postseason. That’s not going to work in 2022.
This team has more problems than can be fixed with extra reps in practice. Here’s how they manifested in Week 6.
Aaron Rodgers was clearly affected by a sore throwing hand and generally looked mortal
The reigning two-time MVP finished his afternoon with a decent enough stat line. He threw for 246 yards and a touchdown without throwing an interception. He also needed 41 passes to get there and, per NFL Next Gen Stats expected points added (EPA) model, was wildly damaging to his own offense.
The advanced stats help illustrate just how off his rhythm he was, especially early in a game where the Jets’ offensive struggles gave him several opportunities to take control. New York’s solid defense was a problem, but the bigger issue early on was Rodgers’ own inability to put passes where he needed them.
the throw of a man whose hand is completely fine, don't worry pic.twitter.com/ooz2uyNLvT
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) October 16, 2022
The passes Rodgers normally puts on target weren’t there early on. While he didn’t make mistakes by leaving the ball where New York’s defensive backs could get it, he also didn’t do a great job of putting it where his understaffed receiving corps could thrive. Throws were a split second behind, leaving room for passes to be broken up. Occasionally they were wildly and uncharacteristically off.
Romeo Doubs has man coverage beat, has distance on the safety, could walk into the end zone with a proper deep ball …
and after slowing down Aaron Rodgers still underthrows him by at least 5 yards pic.twitter.com/n8EajwYSAY
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) October 16, 2022
While he found more success in the second half against a Jets team determined not to get beaten over the top — probably not as much of a concern as head coach Robert Saleh would have thought, given the circumstances — Rodgers still struggled in a new and concerning way. The arm strength that bailed him out of so many jams in the past was still there, but the accuracy that made it so dangerous was not.
Here’s his last throw of the game — a fourth-and-14 sling in the Packers’ last gasp at a comeback. It’s by no means an easy throw, looped over a linebacker but in front of a safety to tight end Robert Tonyan. It’s also one Green Bay fans have the luxury of being used to seeing him thread through a tight window.
In Rodgers’ defense, two plays earlier he threw up a deep ball to the end zone that was almost perfectly placed and merely a mistimed Allen Lazard jump away from being six points. Still, that only would have drawn his team back with seven points and ultimately wouldn’t have smoothed over all the concerns of a truly awful first three quarters of football.
But Rodgers' supporting cast was a constant source of disappointment
Rodgers’ blocking up front left him dancing in the pocket all after noon. This is obviously an issue, but one exacerbated by the compromised arm strength he took into Sunday’s game. Forcing him from the pocket buffed his downfield accuracy considerably. He completed just three of his 13 throws 10-plus yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
His offensive line, mostly healthy, had no answer for Quinnen Williams and a pass rush that sacked him four times, hit him nine more and generally left him skittering behind the line of scrimmage on passing downs.
This was far from the only problem. His cast of wideouts was further depleted when reliable veteran Randall Cobb was carted to the locker room with an ankle injury in the third quarter. 30 of his 34 non-tailback targets went to just three players — Robert Tonyan, Lazard and Doubs. The Jets knew where the ball was going and how to stop it.
Even the team’s handoffs, the simplest call in Rodgers’ playbook, found a way to end in abject disaster.
like how do you even mess up such a simple task this badly? pic.twitter.com/54Y4qWJOBJ
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) October 16, 2022
Rodgers had his share of failures, but they weren’t his alone. Disaster reigned across his offense in Week 6. Some of those mistakes were correctable, but the general themes — poor blocking, a thin receiving corps, Rodgers’ advanced age and the potential of a late-stage Ben Roethlisberger/Drew Brees dropoff — have lingered long enough to be very real obstacles on the path to a playoff spot.
These issues aren’t just relegated to the offense.
The run defense that's given mediocre quarterbacks cover once again stuck out
Here’s where the Packers’ run defense has ranked in DVOA over the last four years, per Football Outsiders.
- 2021: 28th
- 2020: 18th
- 2019: 27th
- 2018: 30th
Coming into Week 6, that unit clocked in at 30th. The week prior it had allowed Saquon Barkley to run for 5.4 yards per carry and create the breathing room necessary for Daniel Jones to lead a game-winning drive. This made it no surprise when Breece Hall and Michael Carter arrived in Wisconsin and promptly worked over the Packers for 157 rushing yards on 26 carries.
THE FOURTH QUARTER JETS ARE HERE.
TOUCHDOWN @BreeceH#NYJvsGB on FOX pic.twitter.com/uZi2YhnUvs
— New York Jets (@nyjets) October 16, 2022
This was immensely valuable for a New York offense that failed to generate any kind of consistent threat through the air against the Packer secondary. We see that here in the third quarter. It’s first-and-10, a situation in which the Jets have run the ball five of the last six times (and the sixth was a short pass to Hall). Green Bay is settled in to stop the run with eight men within five yards of the line of scrimmage. Instead, it’s a designed roll-out for Zach Wilson, who has Corey Davis in single coverage downfield.
That was 37 percent of the Jets’ total passing output Sunday, and it was all made possible by the Packers cheating up to the line in hopes of bolstering a deficient run defense. One play later, Braxton Berrios took an end-around 20 yards to the end zone and put New York in the lead to stay.
As emphatic a win this was for New York, the Jets still have a long way to go
Zach Wilson improved to 3-0 as a starter in 2022. All three of those wins have come against teams who finished 2021 with winning records.
Do not read too much into this. He is still a problem.
Wilson occasionally displays the arm strength and downfield accuracy to keep the Jets interested, but there are so many little problems with his game that he’s still so, so difficult to trust. He was caught throwing or sliding short of the first down marker on multiple third-and-manageable situations in the first half, all of which led to punts.
first Jets drive: Zach Wilson throws short of the sticks on third down, incomplete
second drive: Zach Wilson slides short of the sticks on third down pic.twitter.com/2ExIbNwj6l
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) October 16, 2022
When he did keep his eyes downfield and showcase situational awareness he still managed to make concerning throws. Here’s a great escape from third down pressure and a tip-toe down the sideline … only to lob a pass into traffic that was more likely to be intercepted than caught for a touchdown.
i mean credit to Zach Wilson for escaping pressure and not taking the checkdown this time but hoooooo buddy this could've been a way bigger disaster for him pic.twitter.com/5T69UMgPPp
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) October 16, 2022
Wilson had one very nice deep completion to Davis, as seen above. This was his only completion that traveled more than eight yards downfield. It was the only pass he threw that traveled more than 15 yards past the line of scrimmage.
That makes sense in a game the Jets won by 17, but keep in mind this was a one-score game headed into the fourth quarter. Wilson got the win, but New York won in spite of him rather than because of him.
But that’s OK! This defense is playing at a high level and recent additions like Sauce Gardner (2022) and Quincy Williams (2021) have joined forces with the team’s holdovers to create a unit that’s significantly better than the 2021 group that allowed more points than anyone in the league. On Sunday they provided the cover needed for Wilson to escape with a win on a day where his run game was capable of providing the heavy lifting.
That’s not going to hold up every week. Still, a win’s a win and the New York Jets are 4-2. That’s a big deal, even if there’s a delicate balance at play.
