Here’s a breakdown of scoring by quarter between the Golden State Warriors and Boston Celtics through two games of the NBA Finals.
First quarter: Warriors 63, Celtics 58 (5-point margin)
Second quarter: Celtics 48, Warriors 43 (5-point margin)
Halftime margin: 0
Third quarter: Warriors 73, Celtics 38 (35-point margin)
Fourth quarter: Celtics 64, Warriors 36 (28-point margin)
The numbers that jump out are in the second half, and the largest margin is the third quarter where the Warriors have a 35-point advantage. Each game went to halftime with a two-point margin, and each game was blown open in the third by the Warriors. They outscored Boston 38-24 in the third quarter of Game 1 and 35-14 in the third quarter of Game 2.
Boston was able to lead a furious comeback in the fourth of Game 1, thus the large margin there. But overcoming double-digit deficits against a team this good is not something the Celtics can or should rely on going forward. If they want to win this series, they need to do a better job carrying over the same intensity and effort from the first half into the third quarter.
It’s not simply a matter of the Warriors heating up, either. While the third has been their highest scoring quarter of each game, it’s also been the lowest-scoring quarter of each game for the Celtics. Boston’s 31% shooting in the third is their lowest of any quarter.
It’s difficult to pinpoint any one reason why they’re coming out of halftime flat, but one potential reason could be the adjustments of Warriors coach Steve Kerr. A three-time championship coach with even more NBA Finals experience to boot, he’s likely more in tune with what his team needs to hear and do, and what counter-adjustments might be necessary. Celtics rookie coach Ime Udoka apparently hasn’t cracked that combination yet.
Another thing to consider is simply that this has been a hallmark of the Warriors under Kerr. In their best years, the Warriors have always been a team that could use the third quarter to overcome halftime deficits — no matter how large — or turn a five-point lead into a 25-point lead. That ability had diminished in recent years, including this season, as player departures and injuries took effect. But now that the roster is mostly complete again, it’s possible that it’s returned.
The Warriors have scored at least 35 points in the third quarter of six games this postseason, best in the NBA and already more than half the amount of times they did it in the regular season. The Dallas Mavericks are the only other team to do it more than twice this postseason. The Celtics have only scored that much in the third quarter once this postseason — in the first round. Their third quarter net rating has plummeted from a league-best 11.8 in the regular season to -7.6 in the playoffs.
If you eliminate the third quarter of Games 1 and 2, these teams have been close to even. So if the Celtics fix the issue, they have a good chance to beat the Warriors and claim their first title since 2008. If not, the Warriors may be headed for a fourth title in eight years. After two games, they’re only slightly favored to do so at -115 odds to Boston’s -105 on Tipico Sportsbook.
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