It’s been described as Wales’ acid test this autumn, the game that will determine how much there is to be positive about heading for the Six Nations.
Beat Australia and Wayne Pivac may be able to contend that the horror show against New Zealand earlier this month was down to his players being slow starters who need time to get up to speed for Test rugby.
Lose and — well, lose and let’s just say there won’t be a national holiday to follow.
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Of course, Pivac and his players first have to dispose of Georgia on Saturday before they can think of the campaign finale against the Wallabies a week later.
But the certainty is that the selectors will be looking at players to put their hands up for places against the famous gold shirts. That will be the game that really defines Wales' autumn campaign and the prospects heading into World Cup year.
We take a look at where those on duty this weekend currently stand.
The starting XV v Georgia
Louis Rees-Zammit: In a perfect world, he’d be lining up against the Wallabies and showcasing his Rolls Royce pace against opponents who relish expansive rugby. But the world isn’t perfect, with Rees-Zammit based in England — hence he’s off limits for Wales’ final game of the autumn campaign.
Alex Cuthbert: The selectors seem to like him and see him as a Test animal. At 6ft 6in, 16st 4lb and with 53 caps it’s not hard to understand why they view him favourably. Selection is competitive out wide, though, with Josh Adams back this weekend and Rio Dyer having performed solidly in this series to date. Cuthbert probably needs a good performance to seal his place.
George North: Defended as well as Rumpole of the Bailey last time out, imposing his physicality on Argentina. Wales need to send more front-foot ball North’s way for him to show his attacking prowess, but he’s warming to his outside centre role. A certainty to face Australia.
Owen Watkin : Saracens’ Nick Tompkins is out of range for the Wallabies match, so Watkin looks booked for a start, with the only other centre in the squad being 20-year-old Joe Hawkins, who has evidently been included in the group this autumn for the experience.
Josh Adams: He’s been absent for a month because of injury, but he’s a front-liner and a proven Test performer: an injury-free outing against Georgia would likely be followed by a start against Australia.
Rhys Priestland: Here’s an interesting one. Gareth Anscombe is probably the marginal favourite to return to the starting XV a week on Saturday, but neither fly-half has ignited Wales’ backline in this series. A good effort from Priestland here would give Wayne Pivac a decision to make.
Tomos Williams: Two words: Nailed on.
Gareth Thomas: Recovered from a challenging outing against the All Blacks to produce a strong display against the Pumas. Wales clearly see him as their number one No. 1. Looks on course to begin every game of the series.
Ken Owens: Old guard, new lease. At 35, Owens has banged in two big performances this November, re-establishing himself as Wales’ first-choice hooker after his return from injury. Stayed on for 80 minutes last weekend and will stay in the starting line-up all the way for the campaign finale. You can read more here about the 22-year-old dairy farmer who recently faced Owens in a Welsh Premiership clash.
Dillon Lewis: Changing of the guard? Hard to say. But Tomas Francis’ difficult experience against Ethan de Groot in the series opener hasn’t helped him. Lewis had a decent game against Argentina, too. This one could be a 50-50 call if Francis is fit.
Ben Carter: Wales are taking the chance to look to the future with some of their picks for the mid-two games of this series. Alun Wyn Jones is set to be back in contention for the Wallabies match — don't believe for a single minute the ex-Wales captain would have lost his competitive zeal in the space of a fortnight — but a blinding performance from Carter against Georgia would help the youngster's cause no end.
Adam Beard: The big man is going to play against Australia.
Jac Morgan: “He is looking a beast in training.” So said Pivac of Morgan this week. The coach would have also heard his predecessor Warren Gatland and ex-Wales captain Sam Warburton acclaim the Osprey after his effort against Argentina. The outlook’s bright for him, then.
Justin Tipuric: The skipper will face the Wallabies — of course he will.
Josh Macleod: Taulupe Faletau will be Wales’ No. 8 for the closing encounter of the campaign. Pivac clearly likes and rates Macleod, however. Amid Christ Tshiunza’s ongoing absence, presumably because of injury, the Scarlet has a shot at figuring on the bench for the final outing of the series given his ability to cover all three back-row positions.
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Replacements
Bradley Roberts: Couldn’t contain his disappointment at being left out of Pivac’s original autumn squad and will be looking to prove a point. While his wait for a first Wales start seems likely to extend beyond this month, a big effort against Georgia would leave him neck-and-neck with Ryan Elias for Australia game.
Rhodri Jones: Nicky Smith must sometimes lie awake at night wondering what he needs to do to please the selectors. But it didn’t go unnoticed that Jones put in some big hits off the bench last time out, with 60 percent of his tackles rated dominant affairs. A repeat dose would do his cause no harm for a bench spot a week on Saturday.
Sam Wainwright: Tomas Francis? A good question. Wainwright’s fate will depend on whether the Osprey is brought back into the 23. You can read more about Wainwright and THAT scrum here.
Dafydd Jenkins: This could be his chance to put down a marker. Wales obviously think highly of him — why wouldn’t they? He won’t be involved in their end Test of the year, though, with Jenkins playing outside Wales and so not eligible for the out-of-window encounter.
Taulupe Faletau: Man of the moment. Enough said.
Dane Blacker: He has shown he can make an impact for the Scarlets. You’d back Kieran Hardy to stay as second-choice No. 9, but this may be Blacker’s opportunity to make a name for himself.
Sam Costelow: He’s fast, which is always a plus for a fly-half, and he’s widely felt to be on an upward curve. He’s one for the future and the experience of his rivals may mean he’s unlikely to be involved against the Wallabies. Not inconceivable, but unlikely.
Leigh Halfpenny: Will end the year as a Wales starter.
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