According to former Tory MP Miriam Cates, it’s “the one overarching threat to British conservatism and to the whole of Western society”. What is this menace on the horizon? The rise of AI? Right-wing extremism? Climate change? No, the fact that women in the UK — and especially London — are having fewer babies.
It’s been called “the birth dearth” and the reasons for it are manifold, from short-term factors including unaffordable nursery fees to more existential worries, such as fears about the state of the world. Although falling birth rates are a problem across the UK — and in many other countries — London’s has plunged dramatically. The average woman in London now has 1.35 children, down from 1.74 in 2013. The national average is 1.44.
A baby shortage in the capital could markedly change the landscape of the city, and not just because you’d notice fewer Yoyo buggies on the streets and fewer little people running amok in your local pub. Maternity wards and schools will close and we could see even more care homes open in their place to cater for the city’s ageing population.
The long-term implications for public services are even more worrying. Society functions like a pyramid scheme, with the youngest members supporting the old. If the bottom of the pyramid falls away it would put a huge strain on the health service, the benefits system and the state pension. In fact, many experts believe that unless we solve this “baby-geddon”, life in the city as we know it could collapse. “The Government needs to act now otherwise society just isn’t going to function,” explains Dr Paul Morland, author of No One Left: Why the World Needs More Children. “The babies born now are the people whose taxes will pay for our healthcare. They will be the ones looking after us in our old age. They are the doctors and nurses and care workers of the future. If you only have one working-age person to every retiree, there will be a pensions crisis, a labour shortage and everything will break down.”
Last month, London had the dubious honour of becoming Britain’s “fastest ageing city”, partly because its population is increasingly opting out of having children.
One of those is Esther, 31, from Wembley. “I always thought I’d go to uni, get a job, have kids, but seeing how becoming a parent has upended my friends’ lives has put me off,” she says. “In the generation above me, nearly everyone becomes a parent, but I think people my age are really on the fence, and the generation below mine are even less up for it. My partner and I love our life — we travel, we have such freedom. The idea of giving that all up and pressing pause on my career doesn’t appeal.”
Every now and again, when I see a friend’s cute little chubby child, I wonder if I’ve made the right decision
According to the Resolution Foundation, birth rates have been falling faster in London than in the rest of the country since the 2000s. In October last year, figures released by the Office for National Statistics showed only 104,252 babies were born in the capital in 2023, a drop of 2,444 on the previous year and the lowest figure since 2008. Islington had the lowest fertility rate of any borough (1.01), followed by Southwark and Hammersmith & Fulham, both on 1.06.
“Fertility rates are lower in areas such as London where housing costs are high and accommodation types are less suited to families,” says Ann Berrington, professor of demography at the University of Southampton. “Many students and young adults move to major urban areas, and then move away at a later life stage when they want to start a family.”
Why are birth rates in London at historically low levels? Housing and childcare are the obvious first answers
This has long been the case, so why are birth rates in London at historically low levels? Housing and childcare are the obvious first answers. They have always been more expensive in the capital, and things are markedly worse now. Full-time employees in London spend about 12 times their annual earnings buying a home, and that’s if they can get on the housing ladder at all.
The childcare crisis
And then there’s childcare. Nursery costs in London are already some of the highest in the world and the influx of private equity into the sector means the pressure is on to maximise profits even further. Putting your little darling through a private nursery such as N Club could now cost you more than £2,000 a month for a full-time place — that’s £24,000 a year. Research from Pregnant Then Screwed in 2022 found that 60 per cent of women who had terminated a pregnancy said the cost of childcare was a factor in their decision.
“It is no surprise to us that fertility rates have hit the floor, as procreation is fast becoming a luxury item in London,” says Joeli Brearley, founder of Pregnant Then Screwed. “Our research finds that almost half of parents have been plunged into debt or had to use savings, some are even pulling money from their pension pots, just to survive maternity leave. The cost of housing, childcare, the measly sum provided for maternity leave and rising rates of pregnancy and maternity discrimination means that for many, having a child is financial suicide. If we aren’t careful, people will be priced out of becoming parents, and the economy can’t afford to pay that price.”
According to a 2023 study from UCL, only one in four 32-year-olds who want children are actively trying to have them. Financial worries were one of the top reasons cited.
Sarah Buckley, a 29-year-old PR from Lewisham, says having a child would “bankrupt” her and her husband. “Childcare costs are crazy, bills would become more expensive due to the extra water, heat and electricity being used, and if I wanted to move to a house to raise a child in, forget it. Getting on the property ladder is almost unthinkable for my generation of Londoners,” she says.
“I’d want to have a decent salary to provide a comfortable life to raise a child, but the one I currently have is barely enough for me and my husband, and I doubt it’s going to increase much any time soon.”
The birth rate is also falling because more people are deciding to only have one child. “One and done” families are especially common in London, where more women start having children later. The birth rate for women aged 40 to 44 in London is more than double that of the North East.
Saya Ebbesen, 41, works in medical communications and lives in Hackney. She has a four-year-old son with her husband and they have chosen not to have more children. “We’ve decided to live in London because we want to bring up our child in a diverse urban environment,” she says. “But the trade-off with that is that we don’t have any family nearby to help. We love being parents but we are very focused on our work. You can’t have it all — you pick your battles — and for us that means having one child.”
London maternity wards are already being left empty because of the declining birth rate
The declining birth rate is already leaving maternity wards empty and teachers struggling to fill classrooms. The NHS is currently consulting on plans to close maternity units at either the Royal Free Hospital in Hampstead or the Whittington Hospital in Archway due to a “falling birth rate” in the area. According to data from 2021-2022, half of the cots at the Royal Free Hospital neonatal unit were not in use on any given day. At the Edgware Birth Centre, fewer than 50 babies are born each year.
Schools, which are often the heart of communities, are also closing. Four schools in Hackney closed last summer, and six more are under threat of closure or being merged. In Camden, four primary schools have closed since 2019; and Southwark — which has already lost several schools — has warned that a further 16 are at risk of closure. More will inevitably follow, as London local authorities predict a further decline of 52,000 primary school pupils by 2028.
“The situation is at a crisis point,” says teacher Andrew Dyer, the National Education Union branch secretary for Camden. “It points at what Camden and other central boroughs may look like in the future and it’s bleak. It used to be a borough full of creativity with life and families.” Campaigners are warning that the city could turn into a succession of “ghost towns”.
Fixing the parent gap
So what can be done to boost the birth rate in London? Politicians in the UK tend to be squeamish about pro-natal policies, for fear of being seen to interfere in voters’ private lives. But many campaigners say policies which penalise families, such as the benefits cap, should be scrapped. Schemes giving families 15 or 30 hours of free childcare implemented by Jeremy Hunt are a good start, but more systems need to be in place to support those who want to have children.
Morland says society also has to change radically how it thinks about parenthood. “At the moment we tell people to go to university, get a career and only then think about becoming parents,” he says. “What if you encouraged people to have children young and if they did then you’d subsidise their degree and have crèches in universities? What if all companies had built-in childcare facilities at no extra cost to parents?”
But Berrington says pro-natal policies don’t always work, and even countries which offer excellent government support for families, such as Sweden, are experiencing a falling birth rate.
“There are government interventions, such as offering longer paid parental leave, more funding for childcare and more funding for fertility treatment on the NHS,” says Berrington. “But these policies can be expensive and there’s limited evidence that they raise the overall fertility rate. They tend to just bring forward in time births that would happen anyway, and not increase the overall number of births.”
Compared to other cities, London might actually be the best place to be if the global birth rate continues to spiral downwards
Instead, the Government may need to focus on ways to keep its growing older population healthier and able to work longer. The state pension age is already forecast to rise to 68 in 2044. Dinks (that’s couples with Dual Income, No Kids) might be encouraged to save more for their care in later life. No wonder private equity is also moving into the care home sector. Luxury senior living centres are popping up in London’s most exclusive boroughs, from Richmond to Highgate. But compared to other cities, London might actually be the best place to be if the global birth rate continues to spiral downwards. “London will survive because it has always drawn young people to it,” says Morland.
“For 50 years, birth rates have been falling and we’ve plugged the gap with migration. But countries such as Poland, Ireland and even India have low fertility rates now, so it won’t work for much longer. London will have to compete to draw in young migrants from sub-Saharan Africa, where 70 per cent of the population is under 30 and the population is predicted to double by 2050.”
Esther says that if there was better maternity pay, more help to get on the housing ladder and childcare was less expensive, she might reconsider her decision not to have a child. “Every now and again, when I see a friend’s baby and it’s a cute little chubby one, I do wonder if I’ve made the right decision,” she says.
Of course, the other reason London is losing many of its children was the mass exodus of families from the capital during the Covid pandemic in 2020 and 2021. On average, one child aged five or under leaves London for every 3.5 people aged 30 to 45.
Chris and Roberta Hodder recently moved from Forest Hill to Eastbourne with their two children, aged six and 11. “We knew we’d never be able to afford a house in London,” says Chris.
“Loads of other families we know were leaving London too and since we’ve moved we’ve met loads of other DFLs (Down From Londoners). We do miss city life but we needed security for our family. I don’t think it’s healthy that London is becoming a city without children — it’s becoming a necropolis.”
