The NBA season is nearing the halfway mark and teams have all played enough games to finally give us a proper sample size. Especially when it comes to betting on the spread.
The stats analyzed at this point could be valid indicators of what’s to follow. But even if you’re not ready to make any bets today or don’t want to look too far ahead, it’s important to know how certain teams perform in different areas.
So let’s look at some of the best and worst NBA teams to bet on heading into the Christmas break.
All odds via covers.com
Against The Spread - Who's Covering
Looking for a team who you know will cover the spread? Well then, direct your focus to Sacramento, the state of California’s capital, where a purple beam is frequently being lit.
The Kings’ 19-11-0 record against the spread (63.33%) is the highest mark in the NBA. They’re covering both as favorites and underdogs under head coach Mike Brown, who is impressing in his first season as the Kings’ leader.
Sacramento’s only had two instances in which they failed to cover in consecutive games. Feel confident betting on De’Aaron Fox and Co. to cover.
Against The Spread - Who's NOT Covering
Unlike the Sacramento Kings, the Miami Heat are not a team to count on to cover. They’re a league-worst 10-20-2 ATS, largely due to their 3-12 record through the first 15 games of the season (although, their 2-6-1 record over their last nine games isn’t great either).
Shockingly, 16 of Miami’s failed covers came when it was the favorite to win that day’s game. Knowing such, Miami’s .500 record (16-16) and seventh spot in the Eastern Conference standings make sense. The Heat have mostly underachieved this year and dealt with player unavailabilities. Maybe they will turn it around and start to look like the team who finished the last regular season as the No. 1 seed.
But until then, it’s probably a good idea not to bet on them covering.
Overs/Unders - Who's Covering
High-scoring games are good for some teams. But lower-score outcomes are probably preferred for the 15-18 Golden State Warriors, who allow the third-most points per game to opponents.
But at least the defending champions are serving as a trustworthy team to bet on, even if their play has landed them outside of the Play-In Tournament to this point. Twenty of their 33 games have exceeded the projected points total, including five of the past six contests.
When Stephen Curry returns from injury, the Warriors’ offense may be good enough again to score a ton of points and hit overs. Regardless if he is in or out of the lineup, the defense has proven to be very bad. So, keep betting on these high scores.
Overs/Unders - Who's NOT Covering
On the other end of the scale is the L.A. Clippers, the team who handles injuries in a way that seemingly everyone outside of the organization hates. Surely, Kawhi Leonard’s 21 missed games and Paul George’s and Norman Powell’s 10 absences has to do with the Clippers being the worst team in the NBA at reaching their projected points totals.
In fact, it’s likely the main reason why L.A.’s the lowest-scoring team in the league (107.6 ppg). However, since Leonard’s most recent return from injury, the Clippers have hit the over more times than they haven’t (nine-game sample size) and scored a season-high 126 points in their last outing.
This is a tricky team to bet on going forward and you’ll likely have to pay attention to the injury report. But for now, the Clippers rank at the bottom as far as covering points totals.
