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Romania. Austria or Turkey. Switzerland or a wildly unimpressive England. Taken at face value, on history and international reputation, it’s not a route to the final of a major men’s international tournament which would terrify Europe’s finest.
Add Netherlands in as the nation which faces that pathway, that opportunity, and there would usually be a heavy favourite. Usually.
In years gone by - eras gone by, it’s probably more reflective to say - an Oranje team would have looked at those upcoming and potentially upcoming fixtures and merely decided, there and then, they would be getting to the final. And few would have opposed such a thought.
But this Netherlands is not that Netherlands, and the current iteration has a whole host of issues, not the least of which is failing to qualify for two recent tournaments and only having a third-place finish in 2014 as the sole vaguely respectable run from their last six attempts.
Even so, it’s undeniable that if their key players perform in this run of games, it’s very much in the realms of possibility that they become the team who takes best advantage of the way this half of the Euro 2024 draw has opened up, and they go on to reach a final. First, though, Ronald Koeman must find a quick fix in midfield.
It’s well-established now that the Oranje found preparations hampered by losses in the middle of the park pre-tournament, the biggest of which was Frenkie de Jong.
But that doesn’t mean they no longer possess any players who can impact there - but the need to find the right blend has been a running theme of their tournament so far. Without it, they lack control of matches, protection of the defence and a supply line to the attack - all of which has been problematic with far too much frequency for them to otherwise be a real contender.
Headlining the struggle has been Joey Veerman. The PSV man started the tournament, was quickly dropped after a poor showing, was reinstated for the final group game...and promptly subbed off again, half an hour or so after kick-off, for another abject outing. He’s not the only player who has underperformed and finding a blend, a balance, by its very nature requires more than one player.
Jerdy Schouten has started all three but has not exactly left onlookers filled with confidence, and while Tijjani Reijnders is definitely deserving of a starting spot, Koeman has struggled with whether to leave him centrally or higher upfield.
It may well be that Netherlands’ best option here is to go back to the future and reinstate a player previously a mainstay: Gini Wijnaldum. Now one of the Saudi-based contingent of former stars, he has played only 70 minutes so far, off the bench in all three group games. He can, though, bring a poise and control to the middle of the park when fully fit, even if that might not be for the full 90 minutes and even if it’s not in the same previous barnstorming, goalscoring, high-pressure role he used to fill as a No.10.
Koeman has yet to turn to Ryan Gravenberch, talented but not seemingly trusted yet and certainly never having shown the consistency Netherlands realistically need to give a platform for those further forward.
And indeed further forward is where the next problems lie.
Cody Gakpo and Xavi Simons are definite starters, and seemingly Memphis Depay is too despite underperformance for the most part after another injury-hit calendar year, but there are still options for Koeman to build a team which can both progress the ball better than they have managed so far and also protect it with greater intent.
There are really two choices at this point for Koeman.
He can accept in his own mind that Netherlands are not ready or not capable of reaching the final and beating the likes of Austria or Switzerland, who lack an element of star power but have looked among the best-coached and most cohesive teams at the tournament. Thus, he could use the Euros as a proving ground - in other words, find a way to get Jeremie Frimpong and Simons playing in tandem and so on, ready for the next tournament, and the next.
Or, believe he really can guide the nation to the final in Berlin, and find a much more pragmatic-but-reliable pairing in the middle of the park than he has managed so far, whether that means a shape change or dropping another name further forward.
Clearly this isn’t the greatest Dutch era of all time. But football doesn’t play by linear rules, and an opportunity lies open before them to go on a historic run. For them to have any real chance of seizing it, though, they must first answer the riddle in the middle.
