The calendar has flipped to March, which means it’s time for an annual Sports Illustrated tradition: the Magic Eight. We’re less than two weeks from getting our hands on this year’s bracket, but the Magic Eight aims to predict the eight teams capable of winning the men’s basketball national title before ever seeing the matchups. It’s not as easy as just selecting the eight best teams either; the exercise requires at least two teams outside the top eight of the most recent AP poll and one team outside the top 15 to be selected, leading to some tough cuts.
Who are the eight teams you should believe in most this March? Here’s a look at the SI Magic Eight.
Duke Blue Devils
The Case For: The numbers say Duke isn’t just elite for this season, but is tracking to be one of the best teams in the recent history of the sport. As of Monday, its adjusted efficiency margin per KenPom is the highest any team has reached at any point in a season in over a decade, and based on season-ending rank, the only team above this year’s Duke is the 1999 Blue Devils. Duke has so many ways to beat you: Its length and athleticism allows it to dominate the rim on both ends of the floor, it is an elite three-point shooting team at over 38% from distance, it takes care of the basketball and it has quality depth. Cooper Flagg is the type of game-changing player who can win you an otherwise-poor game, but Duke doesn’t need Flagg to be in takeover mode to win games against top-tier competition. And while the Blue Devils aren’t as battle-tested as their counterparts from other top leagues, Duke has beaten KenPom No. 2 Auburn, won at No. 13 Arizona and mollywhopped No. 19 Illinois on a neutral court.
The Case Against: Duke’s main playing rotation is already one of the youngest in the country, and two of its key veterans are now dealing with injuries. Versatile forward Maliq Brown is currently sidelined with a dislocated shoulder, while starting guard Tyrese Proctor recently returned from a bone bruise in his knee to play 24 minutes vs. Wake Forest. Brown’s injury isn’t season-ending, but without him or with a limited Proctor, Duke’s ceiling (particularly defensively) drops a bit. This is also a young team that hasn’t played many close games, with just five games all season decided by single digits. We’ve seen Flagg commit key turnovers in big late-game moments already, all less pressure-packed than the single-elimination Big Dance.
Auburn Tigers
The Case For: The Tigers have been consistently elite from their first game of the season, a 51-point drubbing of a usually competitive Vermont. They’ve built a ridiculous résumé, pacing to set records in the quadrant era for most Quad 1A, Quad 1 and Quad 1+2 wins in a season and looking downright dominant in many of those games. On an efficiency basis, KenPom measures this Auburn offense as not just the best in the country, but the best in his 28-year database, thanks to a combination of size, shooting and ball security that is incredibly hard to find. Many of the headlines go to big man Johni Broome, who is neck-and-neck with Flagg for national player of the year for good reason, but Auburn has five other players averaging between 10 and 13 points per game. This is one of the most complete teams in recent college hoops history, and the Tigers are as battle-tested as any team in a long time. They’re a clear contender to cut down the nets in San Antonio.
The Case Against: The traditional thinking is that you need surefire NBA talent to win it all. The last seven champions have had at least one top-15 draft pick that year, and every champion since Duke in 2010 has had at least one player drafted in the first round of that year’s draft. Auburn doesn’t have a surefire first-rounder: Broome could end up going late in the first, and if not, he will go sometime in the second. That may not be as important in this era of college basketball, especially given that Auburn is a historically old team, with five starters in at least their fourth year of college basketball. But if you’re comparing the Tigers to Duke, the primary gap separating them is future pro potential.
Florida Gators
The Case For: The Gators have emerged into a clear title threat in Todd Golden’s third year in Gainesville, ranking as one of just four teams that are top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency on KenPom. The Gators play a style that’s something of a modern merger between top Gonzaga teams under Mark Few and North Carolina under Roy Williams, trotting out a two-big offense that thrives in transition and opens plenty of room for its point guard to shine. The Gators generate a ton of second-chance points thanks to being top-10 nationally in offensive rebounding rate and are also incredibly dangerous from beyond the arc with all three starting guards having knocked down 60-plus threes at a 36% clip or better. They also possess perhaps the best win any team in the country has grabbed this season, a road win at Auburn that wasn’t as close as the 90–81 final might have indicated.
The Case Against: For as good as the Gators have been at their best, they’ve also had some jarring bouts with inconsistency. Florida dug itself a 26-point hole at Georgia, a 19-point deficit against Missouri and and trailed by 13 with under 10 minutes to go against South Carolina. The Gators won that South Carolina game and rallied for heartbreaking losses in the other two, but digging a hole like that could spell disaster in March. Per EvanMiya.com, Florida is just No. 286 nationally in consistency. They’ve proven their best performance is good enough to beat just about anyone, but it might be a lot to ask them to win six straight … particularly with a coach still looking for his first-ever NCAA tournament win.
Houston Cougars
The Case For: Houston has made the second weekend of five straight NCAA tournaments. The Cougars are knocking on the door despite having some truly miserable March injury luck, and this season might be the year they finally break through. Losing Jamal Shead midway through the Sweet 16 loss to Duke last year was devastating, as was not having Marcus Sasser during the 2022 tournament. A fully healthy Houston has proven itself to be clearly championship-caliber. The Cougars shoot almost 40% from three this season, with all three starters in the backcourt each over 40% from deep. Point guard play was a question early in the year, but Oklahoma transfer Milos Uzan has been phenomenal lately, with a better than three-to-one assist-to-turnover ratio in Big 12 play. They’re also one of the best in the country at generating extra possessions in the form of offensive rebounds and forced turnovers, which provides some breathing room to deal with a poor shooting night or two in March.
The Case Against: If you’re looking for the common thread for Houston’s NCAA tournament losses since this second weekend streak began, it’s the offense letting them down. Houston has scored under 60 points in four of the five games that have eliminated them, the lone exception being its Sweet 16 loss to Miami in 2023. Per T-Rank, Houston gets more of its offense from midrange shots than anyone in the country, a shot diet that isn’t ideal for single-elimination basketball. The Cougars don’t have an easy way of generating offense if jumpers aren’t falling, and that could doom them again in their race for the elusive title.
Alabama Crimson Tide
The Case For: This is a more talented, deeper and more complete Alabama team than the one that made the Final Four a year ago. The Tide have one of the best guards in America leading the charge with Mark Sears, the size up front to bury teams on the backboards and rank in the top 10 nationally in experience, with a veteran-loaded rotation that features multiple familiar faces from last season’s Final Four run. We’ll learn more this week with matchups against Florida and a rematch at Auburn, but the Crimson Tide have proven they can beat elite teams, with five top-25 KenPom wins headlined by the neutral-court victory over Houston. And while the Tide aren’t elite on the defensive end, they’re a lot better on that end than they were a year ago, when they ranked outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency per KenPom.
The Case Against: For a team that takes as many threes as the Tide does, Alabama isn’t an elite three-point shooting team. On the season, Alabama is outside the top 100 nationally in three-point percentage and puts more weak shooters on the floor than any Nate Oats team I can remember. Alabama closed the Tennessee game with Labaron Philon (29.5%), Jarin Stevenson (31%), Grant Nelson (25%) and Cliff Omoruyi (seven career makes) on the floor, a lineup that puts a ton of pressure on Sears to go create.
Michigan State Spartans
The Case For: The Spartans just completed one of the most impressive 15-day stretches of any team in the country this season, going 5–0 in Quad 1 games, including three road wins. That stretch has positioned Tom Izzo’s team for the outright Big Ten regular-season crown and a top-two seed in the NCAA tournament. Freshman guard Jase Richardson has rapidly emerged into a superstar and is shouldering a bigger load of late after serving as a super sixth man for the first three months of the season. Michigan State’s depth is elite and has clearly worn down some opponents late in games. They’re also a terror to defend in transition thanks to their team speed and athleticism. The Spartans’ three-point shooting is a big concern, but they’ve been a top-five offense in the Big Ten despite their perimeter woes thanks to their dominance of the offensive glass and ability to get to the free throw line.
The Case Against: Having 10 capable rotation players is a blessing, but the MSU closing lineup is still less talented than many of the elite teams discussed here. And while they’ve navigated this incredibly tough stretch of schedule without getting much from beyond the arc, winning in March while largely eschewing the three-point shot still feels like a very difficult endeavor. That’s especially true when you let opponents take as many threes as MSU does, even if they’ve been one of the best three-point defenses in the country.
Iowa State Cyclones
The Case For: The Cyclones are still elite defensively as they have been throughout the TJ Otzelberger era, but Iowa State now has the offense to keep up. At full strength, this backcourt trio of Keshon Gilbert, Curtis Jones and Tamin Lipsey is one of the best units in the sport, and importantly, ISU also gets offensive punch from its frontcourt in Joshua Jefferson and Dishon Jackson. Much of ISU’s midseason swoon can be attributed to injuries: Milan Momcilovic missed seven games (a 3–4 stretch for the Cyclones), Gilbert missed two (losses to Houston and Oklahoma State) and Jones missed the Houston game. Now that all are back in the mix, we should get the Iowa State we saw dominate the first two-plus months of the season … and that version of the Cyclones had title potential.
The Case Against: Since Jan. 18, Iowa State is just 7–6 and outside the top 20 nationally according to T-Rank. In that stretch, the offense has regressed back to the average unit it was last season. Some of that can be attributed to the injuries, but they’ve also had significant issues with turnovers in that stretch. Some teams just peak early, and the Cyclones may be one of them.
Gonzaga Bulldogs
The Case For: This exercise requires one team selected from outside the top 15 of the AP poll, but let’s take it a step further and talk about the team outside the top 25 altogether that could win it all: Gonzaga. The Bulldogs haven’t had the season they imagined in the preseason, but there’s plenty here that suggests they could still make a deep run. Gonzaga has been plagued by close losses: All eight losses this season are by eight points or fewer, with three coming in overtime. That’s a bizarre twist for an old team with plenty of NCAA tournament experience and coached by one of the greats in Mark Few. Gonzaga still has one of the best point guards in the country in Ryan Nembhard, an elite post presence in Graham Ike and a stable of older role players around them. If they can get a favorable draw (ideally staying out of the 8-vs.-9 game in the first round and dodging a strong No. 1 seed in the second round), don’t be surprised if this team really gets on a roll.
The Case Against: At some point, you have to actually win the high-level games you play. Gonzaga, for the most part, hasn’t. Its best wins early in the season against Baylor and San Diego State haven’t aged as well as expected, and getting swept by Saint Mary’s in February doesn’t inspire confidence that the woes of nonconference play have magically vanished.
Notable Exclusions
Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee has had an unbelievable season and may well end up with a No. 1 seed. They’re the No. 1 defense per KenPom and have Final Four aspirations for good reason. That said, their style of play lends itself to a March upset. Tennessee plays slow, takes a lot of threes and dares you to beat it with threes on the other end. That’s an elite recipe in the regular season, but a scary one when trying to win six single-elimination games.
St. John’s Red Storm
It’s very scary to bet against Rick Pitino in March, arguably the best tournament coach in the country. But it’d be a pretty serious break of historical precedent if a team that rates as poorly on offense as St. John’s wins it all. St. John’s is outside the top 70 in offensive efficiency, in large part because it’s one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the country. We also haven’t seen the Red Storm yet against a truly elite team. Top nonconference showdowns came against bubble teams like Baylor and Georgia, and the Big East hasn’t provided a ton of top-tier matchups for the Red Storm.
Texas Tech Red Raiders
Texas Tech is up to No. 7 in KenPom and is tracking for a second-place finish in the Big 12. It is incredibly hard to guard thanks to its combination of elite three-point shooting, post presence in JT Toppin and ability to generate paint touches. It also has a whopping seven true road wins this season, a mark only five power-conference foes can match. Consistency has been a problem at times, though, and this is a smaller team with just two players over 6' 6" in the regular rotation.
UConn Huskies
I have to at least address the two-time defending champions. In the end, defense seems likely to be their downfall, with the Huskies currently outside the top 100 in defensive efficiency per KenPom. UConn has also struggled with turnovers this season, which is a scary recipe in March. That said, the Huskies have the shotmaking to beat any team on any given night and a coach who knows a thing or two about winning in this tournament.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as The Magic Eight: Teams That Can Win the 2025 Men’s NCAA Tournament.
