Three NFL teams are favored by more than one score on Wild Card Weekend, as sportsbooks expect the San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills and Cincinnati Bengals to all roll in their first-round matchups.
Bettors apparently agree, with an overwhelming majority picking those teams to cover their large spreads, based on DraftKings data from VSiN.
The 49ers are 9.5-point favorites over the Seattle Seahawks, and 68% of betslips picked them to cover. The Bills have the largest spread of the weekend, giving 13 points to the Miami Dolphins. Yet 79% of betslips have them covering as well. The Bengals, currently favored by 8.5 points over the Baltimore Ravens, have the largest percentage of bets at 83%.
Bettors might be on to something — at least with the Bills anyway. Double-digit favorites in the playoffs are 11-3 ATS since 2010, according to BetMGM’s John Ewing.
Since 2010, double-digit favorites in the NFL Playoffs are 11-3 ATS per @Bet_Labs.
Including 5-1 ATS in the Wild Card Round.@BuffaloBills -13 vs. Dolphins. pic.twitter.com/SeAgQoypD3
— John Ewing 🦁 (@johnewing) January 12, 2023
Will that trend end following a regular season with big upsets and a huge dip in scoring? I wouldn’t bet on it. The Dolphins and Ravens both might be starting third-string quarterbacks, and the Seahawks are about to run into a buzz saw.
