To help you understand what's going on in U.S. politics and the presidential election, and what we expect to happen in the future, our highly experienced Kiplinger Letter team will keep you abreast of the latest developments and forecasts (Get a free issue of The Kiplinger Letter or subscribe). You'll get all the latest news first by subscribing, but we will publish many (but not all) of the forecasts a few days afterward online. Here’s the latest…
As the presidential nominees ready themselves for November their platforms are finally falling into place — a mixture of realistic proposals and lofty promises. Here are the major issues to keep an eye on. Note that these are only forecasts, not endorsements.
With control of Congress likely to be divided between the parties, unless the Republicans can obtain razor-thin majorities in both chambers, expect an emphasis on executive actions.
Trade
Donald Trump wants to increase tariffs across the board, but especially on Chinese imports, expanding on the duties he imposed as president. The trade proposal he has touted most often: A 10% global tariff, plus a 60% one for China. Experts think Trump might be able to skirt Congress with the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which gives the president sweeping control over trade and other transactions after declaring an emergency. Otherwise, he’ll need to either limit the tariffs’ scope or hope he has enough votes in Congress for them.
Kamala Harris would maintain the tariffs imposed by Trump and continued under President Biden, a sign of how much Trump has shifted the consensus on this issue. But she would not aggressively expand them, instead opting for more targeted restrictions on goods seen as potentially threatening to domestic industries, similar to ones recently imposed on Chinese electric vehicles.
Immigration
Another issue where the president has a lot of ability to act unilaterally is immigration.
Trump has promised to undertake a mass deportation effort targeting up to 20 million undocumented people in the U.S. The question is, will he? Expect the former president to test the legal limits of his authority if elected this fall. His first-term deportation efforts often ran aground in court, and this plan would require an even bigger undertaking: Detention centers and troop mobilization.
By contrast, Harris’s immigration ambitions would depend a lot on Congress. She continues to push for the bipartisan Senate legislation that failed this spring, which would allow Uncle Sam to hire more immigration judges and asylum officers, among other things, in exchange for tougher limits on who can be granted asylum.
Taxes
Odds are provisions of the 2017 tax bill expiring in 2025 will be extended in some form, no matter who is elected president, but with some notable variations. Among the tax law provisions set to expire next year:
- The higher standard deduction.
- Lower personal tax rates.
- A state and local tax deduction cap.
- A higher child tax credit.
A big area of difference between Trump and Harris: The corporate tax rate. Trump wants to lower it even further from the current 21%, whereas Harris wants to up it to 28%. Both also have many other priorities that require sway in Congress.
This forecast first appeared in The Kiplinger Letter, which has been running since 1923 and is a collection of concise weekly forecasts on business and economic trends, as well as what to expect from Washington, to help you understand what’s coming up to make the most of your investments and your money. Subscribe to The Kiplinger Letter.
