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Newcastle Herald
Newcastle Herald
National

The jobs summit and the October budget are big tests for new Labor government

CHANGE OF DIRECTION: Treasurer Jim Chalmers can be expected to use a slightly different philosophical framework in setting the Albanese government's first budget but the mindset of permanent Treasury officials will not have changed. Picture: Elesa Kurtz

While Anthony Albanese can hardly be blamed for his peak schadenfreude over Scott Morrison's latest self-inflicted tribulations, his undisguised glee - and running commentary - has left him open to suggestions bashing a foe has taken precedence over running the country.

Among the issues expected to feature highly in the national contest of ideas last week, and which got lost, were the Jobs and Skills Summit - now less than a fortnight away, and what the government plans to do to relieve cost of living pressures in the October budget.

Little, for example, has been said about Treasury's additional tax take from the Ukrainian war resources boom.

This is expected to slash Josh Frydenberg's $78 billion budget deficit estimate even after taking increases in government borrowing costs into account. Where is the debate over whether it might be possible to extend the fuel excise cut beyond September?

As for the Jobs and Skills Summit discussion paper released on Wednesday; that disappeared with barely a trace. Mr Albanese barely mentioned the summit during the many press conferences and interviews he gave from last Monday to Friday.

The emphasis on the Morrison scandal also drew a lot of oxygen away from several recent notable economic developments.

One of these was the better than expected US inflation result of 8.52 per cent for the year ending on June 30.

This hosed down fears the US could be heading into a recession and raised the prospect the Federal Reserve could slow the rate at which it is raising interest rates.

It is worth noting that after months in a bear market the All Ordinaries index has traded well north of 7000 points for 21 straight trading days and is now only 5.41 per cent down for the year to date.

An additional indication green shoots might be starting to sprout arrived with the news the unemployment rate was a better than expected 3.4 per cent; a near record low.

While well below the inflation rate, translating into a real wages cut of 4.2 per cent, the upside is the RBA is now tipped to moderate its interest rate increases.

There is already speculation next month's increase could be 25 basis points, not the 50 basis points markets were anticipating.

The importance of getting to the bottom of the Morrison portfolio scandal should not be understated - it has exposed concerning gaps in transparency requirements.

That said, the focus has taken away from equally important issues that also require the government's attention - ensuring something meaningful comes out of the summit.

With its emphasis on full employment, job security, wages, closing the gender gap, upskilling the workforce and developing emerging industries, the summit has the potential to be the most important gathering of minds Canberra has seen in more than a generation, as long as the Albanese government gives it its full and undivided attention.

HE DID IT HIS WAY: Scott Morrison continues to dig in to justify the secretive powers he accumulated for himself during COVID. With talk of a Royal Commission into the pandemic, Labor will not want the former PM leaving parliament any time soon.

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