Amid attempts by the Janata Dal (Secular) to pick up pieces after its drubbing in the recent Assembly elections, rumours are again flying thick and fast about its possible future electoral arrangement with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections.
The prospects of a poll arrangement between the two parties have frequently dominated the political narrative in the State since their 20-month-old coalition in 2006-2007. Before the 2018 Assembly elections, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi had termed the JD(S) the ‘B team’ of the BJP. This resulted in a perceived loss of seats for the regional party as Muslims consolidated behind the Congress party.
The JD(S) has lacked a stable stance towards the BJP, which has always led to speculation of it having a “soft corner” towards the saffron party. Party leaders, though, vehemently deny having any truck with the BJP. Both within the legislature and outside, the JD(S) is seen to be constantly flipping its stance. It often sends confusing signals with its decisions, which party insiders say are dictated by the political circumstances of the time. This was more evident between 2019 and 2023 when the BJP government was in power in the State.
While both the BJP and the JD(S) are trying to ascertain the possible reasons for their loss in the Assembly elections, JD(S) chief H.D. Kumaraswamy’s recent visit to New Delhi has led to the latest round of speculation that there could be an alliance with the BJP. Though he has denied any such possibility, party supremo H.D. Deve Gowda challenged journalists to “identify a single political party that has never had any understanding with the BJP,” which further fuelled speculation about the possibility of an alliance.
Over the past two decades, the BJP has failed to make inroads into the Old Mysore region, the stronghold of the JD(S). This is cited as one of the reasons for the likelihood of the two parties coming together. The JD(S) has considerable influence in at least six Lok Sabha seats in this region. The reasoning is that an alliance would benefit both: the JD(S) can negotiate for seats in this region to fight the Congress with the BJP, while the BJP can hope to get a foothold in the process. But there are also fears that if such an arrangement is struck, it would end up eroding the regional party’s base in the long run.
The latest development comes at a time when the JD(S) has seen its worst poll performance after the 1999 polls. While the number of seats plummeted to 19 from 37 in 2018, the vote share shrank to 13.29% from 18.36 % in 2018. The Congress defeated it in the Vokkaliga hinterland, while the BJP too fought aggressively against the JD(S).
One of the major factors for the poll debacle, the party believes after its post-election reviews, was Muslim consolidation behind the Congress despite its “best outreach” to the community in recent years. The party thinks that the community is still suspicious of its future moves with the BJP, given the history of its ties with the national party, though Mr. Kumaraswamy was a vocal critic of the BJP’s communal agenda and was in touch with religious leaders in the run-up to the 2023 elections. The 4% reservation given to Muslims, which was removed by the BJP government, is often communicated to the public as Mr. Gowda’s contribution to the minority community during his tenure as Chief Minister in the mid-1990s. This, however, seems to have not made a difference with the community in this election. The top leaders are believed to be “hurt” by the way Muslims voted.
There is also a growing chorus among the party leaders from the districts to shed their “secular” stand and identify with the BJP. Another section believes that the party must understand the long-term repercussions of such a move, if it has to shift its political stance. Some feel that the party should also adopt a ‘soft Hindutva’ policy and align its policies accordingly. Party insiders acknowledge that these issues have come up for informal discussion, but the decisions have been left to the top party leaders to take.
The JD(S) is also yet to make up its mind to be part of the anti-NDA alliance. While it acknowledged having received an invitation to attend the meeting of opposition leaders convened by Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, it is yet to take a call on attending it.
