It goes without saying, but the internet can be an extremely weird place sometimes.
The weirdness reared its head on Saturday when a Reddit user posted an NBA conspiracy theory revolving around Jaren Jackson. Basically, the crux of the theory is that the Memphis Grizzlies’ team of stat keepers are fudging Jackson’s numbers to build him a better defensive player of the year case despite him missing the first 16 games of the season following an offseason foot surgery.
The Reddit user put a lot of work into the post. There were stats, videos, theories and so much more. Eventually, the post made its way from Reddit to Twitter. And, of course, it started to spread like wildfire.
An interesting thread about the Memphis Grizzlies’ scorekeeper inflating Jaren Jackson Jr’s stats – I wonder if this will catch on 👀 pic.twitter.com/IwSg9El2vN
— No Please Help (@jo7june) January 28, 2023
People really started buying into this theory that the statisticians at Grizzlies games have some sort of bet on Jackson winning the Defensive Player of the Year award.
But, y’all. Let me be honest. If you’re a new NBA fan? This might make a ton of sense to you. Maybe you just haven’t been around the game or paying attention to the game all that much over the years.
If you’ve been around, though? This stuff isn’t surprising at all to you. You’ve seen this before so many times. It’s nothing new and probably doesn’t have anything to do with any sort of bet.
Let me explain.
Wait, so this isn't really a thing?
It’s almost certainly not the big deal this post is making it out to be. If you look at the raw stats, of course, Jackson does actually have more blocks and steals at home than he does on the road.
It’s nearly double in each category.
Memphis Grizzlies’ scorekeeper is likely embellishing defensive stats for DPOY candidate Jaren Jackson Jr.
(via u/AdMassive6666 on Reddit) pic.twitter.com/KqqQGOQYuA
— Jon Asaad (@jaynbablog) January 28, 2023
But that doesn’t necessarily mean that there’s a conspiracy here. Some players just play better at home! Some players play well on the road. That just…is what it is. There’s no real rhyme or reason to it, as this investigation from SB Nation’s Matt Issa points out.
Jackson might just be one of those players who plays better at home.
OK, fine. But explain the videos included in the Reddit post then!
So there were videos included in the post that brought up actual instances where Jackson was credited for blocks or steals that definitely seem a little iffy at best.
Here are some of the examples used.
Did some 'investigative journalism' this morning into the Jaren Jackson Jr. scorekeeper saga (from this Reddit thread alleging his stats are padded at home: https://t.co/XH6X5muYkP)
Here are some of the more questionable blocks/ steals JJJ is credited for pic.twitter.com/oeVKSJoImt
— The Box and One (@TheBoxAndOne_) January 28, 2023
But, y’all. This has been a thing in the NBA for literal decades. It’s a well-known fact that stat keepers tend to be more generous to the home team. Matthew van Bommel, who used to work in the Kings’ analytics department, did an entire scientific paper on it.
He called it the “Van Exel Effect” because it was inspired by the game where former Lakers point guard Nick Van Exel finished with 23 assists against the Grizzlies (LOL), which left him just one assist shy of Magic Johnson’s team record.
Later, the scorekeeper who worked the game admitted that he’d been generous to Van Exel in inflating his assist numbers that night. So, though he had a ton of assists, he didn’t actually dish out 23.
That didn’t make his game any less incredible, though.
So you think that's what's going on here with Jaren Jackson?
Yes. Absolutely. I don’t see why it wouldn’t be. Again, this is common around the NBA.
The Van Exel game happened back in 1997. Fast forward to 2018 and here we see Lonzo Ball getting some love on the assists, too. And don’t even get me started on some of Russell Westbrook’s triple-doubles. We were having this same Jaren Jackson Jr. conversation about Anthony Davis eight years ago. Nothing has changed and it’s not a big deal.
Wait, why isn't this a big deal to you?
Because, whether he’s got inflated stats at home or not, Jaren Jackson is still a flat-out awesome defensive player. He completely shifted the Grizzlies’ defense and season around.
From October 18th when the season started to November 14th, which is a day before Jackson returned to the lineup, the Grizzlies’ ranked 20th in defensive efficiency.
From November 15th until now they have the literal best defense in the NBA. That’s not a coincidence. It’s Jaren Jackson. And a few extra blocks and steals here might be cool, but that doesn’t even begin to demonstrate his full defensive impact. You see that just by watching the games.
That's...a pretty good point.
The only real argument anyone can make here is the betting one. Maybe the extra numbers impact folks’ parlays?
But, hey, man. This has always been a thing and bettors in Vegas have dealt with it. I don’t see why there’d need to be some drastic change here. And what would that change even be? Maybe the NBA could hire stat crews like they do officials instead of allowing teams to hire their own scorekeepers.
That might help, but who knows? This is not the big deal people are making it out to be. Just give Jackson his credit where it’s due.
