Prime Minister Anthony Albanese will make a trip to Washington next week and announce a deal to acquire nuclear-powered submarines that could also prove a decisive moment in Australia’s modern history.
Speaking before he left for Ahmedabad and a visit with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Mr Albanese said there was a second leg but was coy about the details.
“I will be visiting the United States for a bilateral meeting with President Biden,” he said on Wednesday.
“I look forward to the continuing engagement.”
Others have been less discreet.
The Times is reporting that Mr Albanese will appear alongside the President and British PM Rishi Sunak in San Diego where they will announce details about Australia’s forthcoming move to nuclear submarines and to reaffirm the grand alliance that surprised the world in 2021.
The PM would not say if he would also be meeting Mr Sunak.
A major shift afoot
At an estimated $100 billion, the eight submarines will deliver a long-promised hike in defence spending but, notwithstanding the nation’s disappointing history of submarine purchases, many experts argue they could change Australia’s role in the region.
“We are entering an era where Australia will play a more direct role in supporting US military posture and operations in the Indo-Pacific,” said Ashley Townshend from the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
“It is an historic moment in the alliance.”
Critics such as Paul Keating says nuclear subs give Australian forces the technology to travel for distances not needed for defensive purposes, something which could raise tension and the risk of conflict in itself.
Beijing regularly denounces AUKUS as a plan for ”fuelling conflict” and the move has also drawn wider unease and from countries such as Indonesia.
At the National Press Club last week Mr Albanese affirmed AUKUS and said that Australia building up its capability would make the region more stable and should not be seen as provocation.
“AUKUS is about the future,” he said.
Dr Townshend also says AUKUS’ more immediate purpose is to share technology more effectively as all three members’ face growing competition from China and a narrowing of competitive advantage.
“China’s investment and research into cutting edge technologies is progressing at breakneck speed and the United States is no longer no longer the world’s leading technological power,” he said.
“It’s the same strategic trends that have led the United States to rotate strategic bombers through northern Australia.”
One report last month suggested that bureaucracy and a culture of secrecy was still holding back the “second pillar” of AUKUS and the exchange of technologies like hypersonic weapons.
Details, details
But first Mr Albanese is expected to name the kind of submarines we’ll be buying and which of the other two allies in the AUKUS trio will construct them.
South Australia has made a customary bid, but the shift from diesel to nuclear submarines already risks leaving a hole in Australia’s military defences, which could mean the first two are built overseas.
Unconfirmed reports in a UK newspaper said two soon-to-be-completed British boats – 97 metres long and capable of making their own oxygen – HMS Agamemnon and HMS Agincourt were close to being sold for just under $4 billion.
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton last week said he believed British-made boats had design flaws – “unhelpful speculation” for which he was told off by the UK High Commissioner on Wednesday.
That Mr Albanese, who in his younger days protested against nuclear power and a few other things besides, should have the honour is not a moment without irony.
He has been supportive of the American alliance vocally for years and made closer engagement with Mr Biden on climate a priority in opposition.
But it was only about 18 months ago that he was almost cut out of knowing about the AUKUS deal in its entirety and received a briefing only the day before the announcement, in what might have been a major break with a tradition of bi-partisan support for foreign policy.
As one writer unkindly noted last week as Mr Albanese gave a speech last week telegraphing the upcoming announcement of a submarine purchase, only minutes prior Scott Morrison posted photographs of an old press conference with President Biden to LinkedIn, and said he looked forward to seeing the AUKUS vision realised.
On Monday Mr Morrison gave an interview to the Daily Mail saying AUKUS would work most of all as a deterrent.
“I knew it would have a major impact on Australia’s capability for generations,” Mr Morrison said.
