Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh was killed in Tehran on Wednesday in a strike blamed on Israel. Iran has promised to avenge his death, sparking fears of a broader regional conflict stemming from the Gaza war. FRANCE 24 examines what kind of Iranian "response" can be expected.
Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas and a leading figure in the Palestinian resistance movement, was killed on Wednesday in Tehran in a strike Hamas and Iran blamed on Israel.
Israel has not claimed responsibility for Haniyeh’s assassination, although Israeli Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu said that Israel had dealt "severe blows" to its "enemies" in recent days.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said that "severe punishment" would be meted out to Israel following the assassination.
"We view it as our duty to avenge his martyrdom which happened within the territory of the Islamic Republic of Iran," he said.
‘Justified’ concern
Asked about the chances for a regional escalation of the conflict, Clément Therme, a research associate at the International Institute of Iranian Studies and lecturer at Montpellier's Paul-Valéry University, said such concern was “justified”.
"There will be a response," he said.
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For the Iranian regime, the affront was twofold: the capital was targeted on the very day the country inaugurated its new president, Massoud Pezeshkian.
Iranian culture calls for honouring "guests" – in this case, Haniyeh – and having been unable to protect a guest can be taken as a sign of dishonour.
By launching strikes targeting Israel, Iran would also be re-establishing deterrence, said Therme.
According to Guillaume Ancel, an expert on military issues and a former French military officer, Tehran has two practical options. The first would be to take the “terrorist” route. "We are all thinking of the Israeli athletes who came to Paris for the Olympic Games. Their security has certainly been reinforced, but no one can guarantee anyone’s absolute safety."
The other tactic would be to strike Israeli territory, he said. This would make it the second attack this year, as the Islamic Republic fired some 300 drones and missiles on Israel during the night of April 13-14.
‘Revenge’ without committing ‘suicide’
Intercepted by Israel and its allies, this "show of force" only caused minor damage.
But to avenge Haniyeh’s assassination, Ancel said Iran’s senior military leadership could decide to launch missiles "with a much more aggressive flight pattern, and which are therefore much harder to intercept".
And whether the target is a civilian in Tel Aviv or a soldier in the Israel Defence Forces, Iran would be aiming for a "high value" target, he said. "Choreographing an attack like the one in April would no longer make sense to the regime," he predicted.
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Any desire for revenge is tempered, however, by Iran’s desire to avoid an "all-out war" with the Jewish state.
"The Iranians know full well that Israel has nuclear weapons," said Ancel. "And as their territory is 70 times the size of Israel’s, Iranian leaders clearly understand that they would not be in a position to protect the country against Israeli strikes."
The Iranian regime is not going to "commit suicide" just to avenge the death of Hamas's political leader, Therme agreed.
Most of Iran’s population does not support the Islamic Republic's more extreme policies in the region, he said. That is why newly elected President Pezeshkian did not advocate the "destruction of Israel" during his election campaign as have others in the past.
Elected to “save Iran from chaos", Pezeshkian has – on the contrary – advocated "dialogue with the West" in the hopes of getting gruelling US sanctions lifted, said Therme. These sanctions are exacerbating a deep economic crisis, marked by rising inflation and mass unemployment.
Avoiding a social 'revolt'?
Iran’s objective, therefore, is "to do absolutely everything to avoid an escalation that would put it in an even more difficult situation internally", Therme said.
Since the death of a young Kurdish woman, Mahsa Amini, at the hands of the Iranian police in September 2022, the regime has been trying to suppress growing anger among its population. It is a tense situation for the Iranian population, and a potentially dangerous one for those in power.
"Tehran wants to avoid the public revolt that could be triggered by a military escalation," Therme said.
"On the contrary, the political calculation is to avoid it."
This article is a translation of the original in French.
