Towns and cities on the M4 corridor in south east Wales are growing rapidly as many other areas of the nation see a decline in population, the first figures released from the 2021 Census have revealed. Overall, the data show Wales is growing more slowly than had previously been thought.
Newport is the fastest growing city in Wales, with a 9.5% increase in population from 2011, according to the data from the Census, which is carried out every 10 years and is the most accurate way of tracking population changes across the UK. Cardiff, the Vale of Glamorgan and Bridgend also saw significant rises.
Yet many other areas of Wales saw declines in population led by parts of the south Wales Valleys, Swansea, and the Welsh-language heartlands of Ceredigion, Gwynedd, Anglesey and Conwy . Overall, Wales' population grew in the 10 years to 2021 but at a far slower rate than in England.
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On Census Day, March 21, 2021, the population of Wales was 3,107,500. This is a 44,000 increase on the figure at the 2011 Census. But it is a smaller increase than had been expected. Stats Wales had previously estimated that the population of the nation in 2020 was 3,169, 586.
The data will have significant implications for funding for Wales and for the local authorities which is based on population. Several councils including Swansea, Blaenau Gwent and Gwynedd serve smaller populations than had previously been thought. Stats Wales had estimated Swansea's population in 2020 as being 246,563 but the Census shows it is just 238,500.
In contrast, the population of England is growing more rapidly up 6.6%. England's population is now 56,489,800. Population growth was also lower in Wales than any of the English regions with the growth rate in Wales nearly six times lower than the East of England, the English region with the highest percentage growth at 8.3%.
The rate of population growth in Wales across the last decade is lower than the rate between 2001 and 2011, when the population grew by 5.5%. In England, the rate of population growth also slowed but to a lesser extent (from 7.9% between 2001 and 2011, to 6.6% between 2011 and 2021).
How has population changed within Wales?
Of all Wales' local authorities, Newport saw the highest rate of population growth since 2011 at 9.5% - perhaps driven in part by the abolition of tolls on the Severn Bridge. The next highest rate of population growth was in Cardiff (4.7%), followed by Bridgend (4.5%).
Cardiff is by far the most densely populated city in Wales with 2,572 residents per square kilometre), which was more than three times as densely populated as the next highest area, Newport (838 residents per square kilometre).
Several local authorities had lower populations in 2021 than in 2011. Concerningly many of these areas were Welsh speaking heartlands such as Ceredigion (5.8%) and Gwynedd (3.7%). Ceredigion has just 40 residents per square kilometre) and Gwynedd 46 residents per square kilometre.
This map shows the population change between 2011 and 2021 across local authorities in Wales:
This chart shows the full list of Welsh local authorities (if it won't load on you phone there is a full list at the bottom of this article):
Overall, there were 1,586,600 women (51.1% of the overall population) and 1,521,000 men (48.9%) in Wales in 2021. This is very similar to the ratio between women (51.0%) and men (49.0%) in England. It is also similar to the ratio in Wales from 2011, when 50.9% (1,559,228) of the population were female and 49.1% (1,504,228) were male.
An aging population
Wales has long had an older and sicker population than the UK average (in some part down to the amount of people from England who retire here as well as Wales' industrial past). The latest data showed Wales had a larger percentage of the population aged 65 years and over than all English regions except the South West, where 22.3% of the population were in this age group. The areas of Wales with the highest percentages of people aged 65 years and over were Powys (27.8%), Conwy (27.4%) and the Isle of Anglesey (26.4%), and the area with the highest percentage of people aged 90 years and over was Conwy (1.5%).
This map shows the age structure of the population broken down by local authorities:
The percentage of the population aged 15 to 64 years was larger in England (64.2%) than in Wales (62.2%). The only English region with a lower percentage of people in this age group than Wales was the South West (61.8%). The areas of Wales with the highest percentages of people aged 15 to 64 years were Cardiff (68.4%) and Newport (64.2%).
Full local authority break down:
| Council | Population 2011 | Population 2021 | Change |
| Isle of Anglesey | 69,751 | 68,900 | -1.2 |
| Gwynedd | 121,874 | 117,400 | -3.7 |
| Conwy | 115,228 | 114,800 | -0.4 |
| Denbighshire | 93,734 | 95,800 | 2.2 |
| Flintshire | 152,506 | 155,000 | 1.6 |
| Wrexham | 134,844 | 135,100 | 0.2 |
| Ceredigion | 75,922 | 71,500 | -5.8 |
| Pembrokeshire | 122,439 | 123,400 | 0.8 |
| Carmarthenshire | 183,777 | 187,900 | 2.2 |
| Swansea | 239,023 | 238,500 | -0.2 |
| Neath Port Talbot | 139,812 | 142,300 | 1.8 |
| Bridgend | 139,178 | 145,500 | 4.5 |
| Vale of Glamorgan | 126,336 | 131,800 | 4.3 |
| Cardiff | 346,090 | 362,400 | 4.7 |
| Rhondda Cynon Taf | 234,410 | 237,700 | 1.4 |
| Caerphilly | 178,806 | 175,900 | -1.6 |
| Blaenau Gwent | 69,814 | 66,900 | -4.2 |
| Torfaen | 91,075 | 92,300 | 1.3 |
| Monmouthshire | 91,323 | 93,000 | 1.8 |
| Newport | 145,736 | 159,600 | 9.5 |
| Powys | 132,976 | 133,200 | 0.2 |
| Merthyr Tydfil | 58,802 | 58,800 | 0.0 |
This article is based on the first release of data from the 2021 Census. The Office for National Statistics plans further releases of data later this year.
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