Three years ago, he was a sensation. Two seasons ago, he lost his starting job. And then earlier this year, he was closing fourth quarters en route to the Finals.
Few players have had an NBA journey as up and down as the Heat’s Duncan Robinson, the undrafted sniper out of Michigan. In 2019-‘20, he splashed onto the scene and shot 44.6% from three as Miami made the Finals in Orlando. By the ’21-’22 playoffs, he had been replaced by Max Strus in the starting five, and his minutes dwindled. Then last spring, Robinson had fallen out of the rotation almost entirely before injuries led to an opportunity in the postseason.
And Robinson seized the moment, playing a critical role for Miami before its eventual loss to the Nuggets in the championship round.
“I feel like overcoming adversity and developing resolve is a skill,” Robinson told Sports Illustrated during the Finals in June. “I’ve had my back against the wall and been beaten down and feel like I’m out, but I can show resolve and resiliency and bounce back.”
Through the first month of this season, Robinson’s renaissance has continued. Not only is he firmly back in the rotation, after an injury to Tyler Herro, Robinson has reentered the starting lineup and is putting up the best numbers of his career. The 29-year-old is averaging professional bests per game in points, rebounds, assists and free throw attempts, all while shooting a career-high 48.1% from the field. Robinson’s minutes per game are his most since 2020-’21, and his three-point percentage (43.3%) is his best since ’19-’20.
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Perhaps most impressively, Robinson’s game has evolved much beyond that of simply a shooter. Skills he flashed during his most recent playoffs have sustained. Robinson is attempting more two-point shots than ever before while making the most unassisted field goals of his career. As teams overplay him to shoot the three, Robinson has developed several counters to get easy looks inside the arc. After back-cutting the Celtics to death in the conference finals, Robinson is now juking Victor Wembanyama and hitting reverse layups at the rim.
Robinson’s two-man game with Bam Adebayo has been particularly effective for Miami, whether Robinson is handling in the pick-and-roll or flying into a handoff at the three-point line. The bind those actions put defenders in—who have to stay attached to Robinson to prevent open outside looks—has opened up lanes to the rim, and Robinson is taking advantage.
The two first developed the chemistry during Summer League, Robinson says, and over the years they have worked on how to take advantage of defenses that overreact to Robinson’s shooting.
“The hardest thing to guard is the unpredictability of it,” Robinson says of his partnership with Adebayo. “We don't necessarily know what we’re going to do. A lot of it is read and react and adjust.”
While Robinson is currently thriving, he had to stay mentally sharp for a large stretch of last season when he wasn’t playing. He appeared in only 42 games a season ago, averaged his fewest minutes since entering the rotation in 2019-‘20 and made only one start—in part due to an injury, but also due to ineffectiveness.
“Where it really shifted and really helped me was, I stepped back and said, ‘If I’m not going to play on game night, I got to find a way to play,’” Robinson says. He started playing one-on-one and two-on-two with younger players on the Heat roster, and Robinson credits them greatly for keeping him prepared. After Herro went down with a hand injury in the first game of last season’s playoffs, a spot opened for Robinson. He eventually played his way into Miami’s best and most-used fourth-quarter lineup.
The script has repeated itself this season. Herro hasn’t played since suffering an ankle injury Nov. 8, and Robinson took his spot in the starting lineup. The five-man group of Robinson, Kyle Lowry, Jimmy Butler, Adebayo and Haywood Highsmith is Miami’s most-used unit, and it has a net rating of 19.4. Those five have played only 74 minutes together, but of all lineups with at least 70 minutes played, the starting five with Robinson has the second-best net rating in the league behind only Boston’s starters.
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As Robinson’s playing time increased during Miami’s playoff run, seemingly so did his confidence. He mean-mugged the Celtics off the floor during the Heat’s Game 7 win in Boston during the East Finals. Then this season, he hit Wemby with The Smitty in San Antonio. And he’s held his follow-through for an extra couple of seconds after drilling some big threes over the last couple of weeks.
“I do feel like I’m playing my best when I’m kind of yapping and enjoying myself and having fun with it,” Robinson admits.
The success of Robinson does create some questions for the Heat, most specifically, whether Herro should still start when he returns from injury. Adebayo and Butler have had success playing off Robinson in the past, as his movement and shooting ability open up what’s often an uninspiring slog of an offense.
For now, the Heat are reaping the rewards of Robinson’s readiness. His six starts this season are six times more than he made a year ago, when his hold on a rotation spot was slipping away. As Robinson changed his game to make his presence undeniable, he also gained a new perspective.
“You get in these moments during the season where you just feel like everything is against you,” Robinson said in June. “I felt that this year as much as I’ve ever felt it in my career. You have these stretches like, why is this happening? How did we get here?
“And then you have these moments of breakthrough, you build a little bit of confidence and build a little bit of resolve. It compounds over time. And then all of a sudden, you are removed from that place you were in.
“And you realize one, you weren’t as far away from being where you wanted to be as you thought you were. And two, you realize wrestling and dealing with those moments are really the most gratifying.”
