Theoretically, things could not have gone better for the Celtics.
In Round 1, the No. 1 seed—and arguably the best player in the world—was knocked out. Meanwhile Boston was playing an average Hawks team that stumbled into the playoffs via the Play-In. Then in the second round, the Celtics played a Sixers group missing Joel Embiid for Game 1, who eventually returned seemingly not at 100%. And ultimately in the East finals, Boston drew the eighth-seeded Heat, a team which finished with a negative point differential in the regular season, with the bones of a roster the Celtics beat en route to the Finals in 2022.
Theoretically, Boston could not have drawn a better path to the NBA Finals.
In reality, the Celtics are on the ropes, and what was supposed to be a season of redemption has turned into one of questions.
The Heat disemboweled the Celtics on Sunday, throttling them 128–102 in an absolute beatdown, with a final score that somehow doesn’t even indicate how one-sided the game was. Miami now leads 3–0 and is one win away from the championship round. Jaylen Brown called the result embarrassing. When Gabe Vincent told the TNT crew after the game closing out Boston would be tough because they are well-coached and won’t lay down, Charles Barkley asked him if he watched Game 3.
Wilfredo Lee/AP
Boston was pitiful on Sunday. Its offense lacked intention. Its defense lacked aggression. The Heat’s stars didn’t even explode for some legendary performance. Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo combined to score 29 points, or as many as Vincent himself. (For good measure, Vincent’s scoring total also outpaced the combined output from Brown and Jayson Tatum.) It was a complete team victory for Miami. Every single rotation player contributed, from Vincent to Caleb Martin to Duncan Robinson. It was the latest inexplicable win from a roster on a completely confounding run.
The Heat are winning in different ways series to series and sometimes night to night. In Game 1, Butler was offensively brilliant. In Game 2, Miami’s zone flummoxed Boston. In Game 3, the Heat seemingly could have picked a fan out from the stands and sprung them loose for open threes.
If Miami’s run was going to stop anywhere, it should have been with this Boston team. The Celtics were the only team in the NBA with a top-five offense and top-five defense this year, and they finished second in both categories. They finished first in net rating. In fact, Boston’s 117.3 offensive efficiency is tied for the second-best regular season mark of all time. The Celtics entered the East finals with arguably the best player between the two clubs in Tatum, who averaged career bests in points, rebounds and assists en route to a top-five MVP finish. They also have the Sixth Man of the Year in Malcolm Brogdon and 2022 Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart.
Literally none of that matters now.
The Heat have picked apart Boston’s defense and stymied its offense. Tatum is shooting 25% from three, hasn’t made a shot from the field through three fourth quarters and has been thoroughly outplayed by Butler, whose brash attitude has been the most consistent throughline in the series. The best bench player between the two teams is Martin. And the most impactful defensive player has been Adebayo, who has generally been the second-best player on the floor.
Every aspect in which this Celtics team thrived during the regular season has been rendered utterly meaningless by the Heat. Miami has not only been better, Miami has absolutely bullied Boston. The Heat snatched homecourt in Game 1. They dominated the fourth quarter in a comeback win in Game 2. And in Game 3, it was the Heat—up 2–0 and headed home—that looked like the desperate, hungry bunch.
Wilfredo Lee/AP
This is an embarrassing turn of events for the Celtics, who again, seemingly could not have asked for a better path back to the Finals after Round 1. Instead, Boston has been so unequivocally outclassed it has invited speculation about the lasting power of the current group. Can Joe Mazzulla grow into the right coach for this team? Does Brown want to be here long term, even if he can sign a supermax? Is there some kind of unknown tension disrupting the locker room?
This is not supposed to happen to teams who were as good as the Celtics were in the regular season. It would have been one thing to lose in a long, competitive series to a Miami team that shares a familiarity with Boston and was clicking in the playoffs. Instead, the Cs look to be crumbling in the face of adversity. Rarely does a conference finals appearance feel so disappointing.
Of course, there is still one game left to go for the Heat to end this series. This is typically where you have to add the caveat that anything could happen. Maybe both teams revert back to who they were from mid-October to mid-April. But at this point, that feels as unlikely as this Miami run to the precipice of the Finals has been.
As Erik Spoelstra often likes to say, games are decided between the four lines on the court, or on the wood. On paper, everything pointed to the Celtics being the better team than the Heat. Where the games actually take place, it would be hard for Boston to be much worse.
