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The National (Scotland)
The National (Scotland)
Sport

The Hearts style tweak needed to break 31-year Euro hoodoo - xG issue, injury boost

As Heart of Midlothian go into the second-leg of their Conference League qualifier with Rosenborg, it is nearly 31 years since they last overturned a first-leg deficit in European competition to progress through a tie. The first round of the 1991/92 UEFA Cup. More than 16,000 at Tynecastle Park witnessed Gary Mackay, Ian Baird, Craig Levein and Glynn Snodin score in a 4-2 success over Slavia Prague, the Czechs having led 1-0 from the first-leg.

Since then there have been disappointments, failures, near misses and, of course, heartbreak. Stuttgart, Liverpool and, just 12 months ago, Zurich.

The defeat to the Swiss side, a game where Jorge Grant was red carded, still festers. It will do so for years, just like Gordan Petric and Stuttgart.

"I was actually thinking about that Zurich game last night because it was a similar feeling, coming home a goal behind from the first leg," said midfielder Cammy Devlin, who perhaps had his best game for the club that night. "I think that first half was probably the best we have played as a team since I’ve been at the club. We put them under so much pressure but if you don’t score goals you don’t win games and then the red card changed everything."

No matter the current standing of Rosenborg, success in Gorgie will represent a scalp. The Norwegian giants have failed to qualify for Europe just twice since 1989. The only opposition Hearts have defeated on the continent in the last decade have come from Estonia and Latvia.

Lawrence Shankland's goal a week ago in Trondheim felt pivotal at the time. Yet it also represented one of the few positive moments in front of goal over the last 180 minutes of football. As noted by Devlin, Hearts have "not been as quick" out the blocks as the team, management and fans would like. A look at the race chart in terms of xG (expected goals) from the defeat to Rosenborg and Sunday's 0-0 draw with Kilmarnock demonstrates not only the slow attacking start but also a general paucity of clear-cut chances. That is despite enjoying upwards of 58 per cent possession in both matches. Possession over penetration, have Hearts been too safe? Head coach Frankie McAvoy thought so, certainly against Rosenborg.

"Making good runs and getting balls into the box, and the timing of the runs, is crucial for us," McAvoy said. "Those are things we have worked on hoping to cause real issues this time."

While Kenneth Vargas' pace and directness is not available to the management team, there are plenty of other attacking options. Barrie McKay's return adds to the variety. Unlikely to start he provides an unlocking ability off the bench. And that could be key. Hearts require a fast start, ensuring the Tynecastle Park atmosphere builds to a simmer, but they can't overcommit, trying to win the game in the first 15, 20 minutes. They have to be wary of Rosenborg's biggest threat. The counter-attack, even if they will be without first-leg goalscorer Jayden Nelson.

"I expect, especially in the start, they will be a little bit more direct, more offensive than they were in the first half in the Lerkendal," Rosenborg boss Svein Maalen said. "Naturally also because it is a home pitch. 

"A lot of action, noise, fun in the stadium. I expect us to try to play the game and repeat a little bit of our performance last Thursday. If you are thinking we only need to counter then we can be a little bit defensive. It is not good for us if Hearts always have the ball. We also need to attack and take control of the ball, take control of the game with the ball."

Rosenborg are an opponent to be respected but certainly not feared. Not with the quality Hearts have in attack and the noise and passion that can be provoked from the stands.

“We need to win the game, whether that’s in 90 minutes or 120 minutes or penalty-kicks," McAvoy noted. "We need to make sure that, in the big moments, we pick the right choices, the right pass, the right runs to hopefully get in behind them and create more scoring opportunities."

It is set to be a fascinating and colourful European night at Tynecastle Park. If Hearts can summon their performance against FC Zurich last August, making the right decisions in those big moments, it will be good enough for the team to progress.

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