In the months before the murder of Sam Rimmer, it was not unreasonable for senior police officers in Merseyside to feel hopeful about gun crime.
The work of the force's dedicated Firearms Investigations Team (FIT), regular successes with seizing illegal weapons and high-profile operations taking out organised crime groups dramatically slashed the number of firearms discharges in Merseyside to record lows.
In 2021/2022, the number of reports of guns being fired in the streets finished at 43, the lowest recorded figure in 21 years and down from numbers regularly hitting 100 plus in the past decade. By August last year, no-one in Merseyside had died by gunfire since Patrick Boyle, 26, was shot dead in Huyton more than a year previously.
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That all changed in six devastating days. On August 16, 22-year-old Sam collapsed onto the street of Lavrock Bank, Dingle, with a bullet wound in his chest fired from one of four men on two electric bikes.
Then followed the death of Ashley Dale, 28, who was shot in her own home by a gunman who burst through the door and fired "multiple shots" indiscriminately, in what detectives believe was an attempt to kill someone else.
Less than 48 hours later, the full glare of national and international media descended on Liverpool for the worst reason imaginable. Nine-year-old Olivia Pratt-Korbel shot in the chest in the place she was entitled to feel safest of all, her own home next to her mum.
As one relatively new police constable described, he and his colleagues in the force were stunned, horrified and at a loss to explain what was happening, but simply had to get on with the job. The statistics show that gun-crime remains low, but the force recognises that is the coldest of comfort to communities rocked and scared by these tragedies.
Further fatal shootings in Wirral, the murders of Jackie Rutter on October 30 and Elle Edwards on December 24, caused further agony in communities not traditionally used to the fear and misery caused by gun crime.
One reason to hope this year will stay a gross aberration from the norm is the attention these incidents have brought to Merseyside. Two Home Secretaries have paid a visit since Olivia's murder, and behind the photo-ops and stern rhetoric there is a genuinely impactful pot of funding now available to Merseyside Police.
The roll-out of the Home Office backed 'Clear, Hold, Build' strategy, shows some long-term thinking and a recognition that "filling the void" after rounding up and prosecuting gangsters is critical.
For Assistant Chief Constable Jon Roy, who spoke to the media at the launch of an initiative dubbed EVOLVE aiming to force crime gangs out of the area bordering Knowsley and Liverpool, explaining the paradox is less important than the work being done.
The ECHO asked why firearms discharges were falling but devastating incidents had shot up. ACC Roy replied: "I'm not going to speculate on what that is. What it is, is a product of organised criminality, and that's why we're here today.
"We're tackling that organised crime, we're being relentless in it. We have made over 400 arrests as part of Operation Miller [an ongoing response to the fatal shootings of August], taken 11 firearms off the streets and those statistics that you quote there that reads across to stabbings, and it reads across to serious violence generally, and is a product of what we're doing with Merseyside Police and our partners in driving down the most serious levels of crime.
"But we need communities to feel safe in their homes and feel safe in their communities and our approach today is very much focused on delivering that."
The ECHO asked what communities can expect to be different this time, as this is not the first initiative aimed at tackling organised crime.
ACC Roy said: "I think what's different is the long term approach we're taking here, the fact we're working with communities to hear their voice, and communities shaping very much the efforts of not just police but our partners in driving out criminality. This is very much the approach that we're doing; we're not doing it to communities, we're not doing it for communities, we're doing it with communities. So that's the difference in our approach."
Merseyside Police and Crime Commissioner Emily Spurrell told the ECHO she was holding regular discussions with Chief Constable Serena Kennedy about the gun crime paradox.
She told the ECHO: "As you say we have seen the actual numbers of firearms discharges drop to the lowest level so some of the work we're doing seems to be really taking effect. What worries me is we're seeing a little bit of an increased recklessness with where people are willing to discharge those weapons now so more people are getting caught in the crossfire and that's obviously very worrying.
"In terms of individual numbers, they're not huge, but obviously the results have been absolutely catastrophic".
Chief Inspector Tony Fairhurst, who is one of the lead officers involved in EVOLVE, emphasised the need for local people to help police: He said: "Working together with our partners, as well as communities, we will continue to do everything in our powers to disrupt and deter criminals from operating on our streets.
“We will break their business models and their ability to exploit the vulnerable by also targeting those that support OCGs such as by assisting their financing and money laundering, helping them to rent premises or to run businesses financed by the OCGs.
“To help us make the greatest impact we need the community to continue to engage with us to give us the intelligence we need to be able to keep people safe.”
Anyone with any information about crime is asked to call Merseyside Police on 101, or Crimestoppers, anonymously, on 0800 555 111.
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