On Tuesday, as Israel sent troops into Lebanon, Iran fired almost 200 missiles at Israel and Benjamin Netanyahu warned Tehran that it “will pay”, the august magazine Foreign Affairs published the US secretary of state’s thoughts on rebuilding leadership. If he correctly diagnosed the issue – “A fierce competition is under way to define a new age in international affairs” – Antony Blinken’s assertions about the renewal of American authority were considerably less convincing.
Some have dated the end of the American century to Vietnam or the “war on terror”. But Donald Trump’s presidency quickened US decline. It wasn’t only Vladimir Putin who was emboldened. Though Mr Trump turned the screws on China, its increasing forcefulness in recent years has reflected not only its growing might and Xi Jinping’s leadership but also its perception of the US as a dwindling superpower. Other nations decided to hedge their geopolitical bets. Yes, the US is in a stronger position today than four years ago, but the erratic isolationism of the Trump administration is a shockingly low bar, and no one can erase its memory. Allies and rivals alike have drawn their conclusions about the long-term reliability of the US.
Joe Biden deserves credit for solidifying western support around Ukraine and restoring relations with Europe. The US showed itself to be prepared, committed and able to coordinate action. It has sought to build partnerships elsewhere too, such as in the Indo-Pacific. The authority it regained, however, has been squandered. The stark contrast between the anguish that the administration has shown over Ukrainian deaths and the apparent indifference towards the lives of Palestinian civilians in Gaza has sharpened widely held cynicism and anger about American double standards. A dozen of the administration’s own officials have resigned. US diplomats warned that its stance “is losing us Arab publics for a generation”.
Mr Biden’s embrace of Mr Netanyahu was meant to forestall the war now under way in Lebanon. A country reliant on the US for security uses the weapons that the US supplies to conduct offensives that the US warns against – and Washington then acquiesces. Yonatan Zeigen, whose mother, Vivian Silver, was a peace activist killed by Hamas on 7 October, described to the New York Times his bafflement at speaking to US politicians and officials: “[They’re] talking like, ‘We’re trying, we’re hoping’ … What do you mean? You have leverage.”
The dynamic may not be new. But it is now more painful and consequential. Mr Biden, so hasty to get out of Afghanistan regardless of the cost, has had to build up forces in the Middle East. The US national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, has said that it will work with Israel to ensure “severe consequences” for Iran’s attack, and Mr Netanyahu doubtless hopes that a Trump administration would back action against Iran even if Mr Biden balks.
The Democrats have lost Arab-American and other voters – Kamala Harris has differed from her boss in tone more than substance – while Mr Trump will seize on higher oil prices due to the crisis and anything that can be portrayed as weakness towards Iran. He says that “the world is on fire” – yet he is the pyromaniac who quit the Iran nuclear deal and Paris climate accord, and who has said he would encourage Russia to do “whatever the hell they want” to Nato allies who didn’t meet spending targets. The shrinking of America’s status could accelerate.
