More than a century of burning coal, oil and gas has fuelled intense heatwaves, prolonged droughts, heavier rains and devastating floods. To prevent even more severe impacts, the UN global climate summit, Cop29, must deliver tangible results to keep global temperature rises below 2C – the limit defined in the 2015 Paris agreement. Achieving this goal means human societies can only emit a finite amount of additional carbon dioxide, known as the world’s “carbon budget”.
Developed nations have exceeded their carbon budgets, while developing countries remain within theirs. Carbon dioxide lingers in the atmosphere for centuries, turning past unchecked fossil fuel use into a costly planetary bill. Between 1870 and 2019, the US, EU, Russia, UK, Japan, Canada and Australia – home to just 15% of the global population – accounted for over 60% of atmospheric carbon dioxide, according to the Delhi-based Centre for Science and Environment.
This underscores the climate debt that rich nations in the global north owe to poorer nations. This reality – rather than oil and gas lobbying – should focus minds at Cop29 in Azerbaijan, where leaders must forge a new global climate finance plan by next week. Economists estimate that developing nations need $1tn annually by 2030, a figure that reflects the scale of the climate crisis. Yet there is little sign the rich world will contribute its fair share.
A stronger, more unified approach is needed. Many of Africa’s environmental NGOs argue that the continent has been sidelined in global industrial shifts, particularly in green industrialisation, due to its lack of a robust manufacturing base and its role as a raw materials supplier. While advanced economies dominate green innovation, Africa faces significant hurdles, including limited technology transfer, expensive financing and weak governance.
The economist Fadhel Kaboub, who advises the Kenyan thinktank Power Shift Africa, sees Cop29 as an opportunity to strike a transformative deal – if the global south can unite and negotiate for the technology and resources it needs to reposition itself in the world economy. Prof Kaboub describes the current climate finance model as “economic entrapment”. The evidence is stark: Africa holds 40% of the world’s renewable energy resources but attracts just 2% of global investments. With 20 out of 38 low-income African nations in or near debt distress, high borrowing costs and a shrinking manufacturing base leave the continent dependent on imports for life’s essentials.
These challenges span the developing world, demanding grants, technology transfers and debt cancellation. Prof Kaboub says Donald Trump’s return to the White House could be a chance for countries in the global south to cooperate and forge a bold deal: to double their industrial footprint with green growth, powered by western technology, in exchange for critical minerals essential for the rich world’s energy transition. Africa, holding 20% to 90% of global reserves for 11 such minerals, could lead this shift. The outcome? A greener, richer world, with developing nations becoming key markets for foreign goods and services.
Mr Trump may find the allure of crafting the “deal of the century” impossible to resist. Others – such as the EU or China – might also be ready to take up such an offer. Cop29 must mark a turning point where developing nations, united, demand a fair and transformative global partnership for a sustainable future. The stakes couldn’t be higher, and neither could the opportunity to reshape the future.
