Consider for a moment a part of Britain vital to Conservatives past and present. It boasts historic buildings, parks of a lush green and even a socking great statue of Winston Churchill. The latest census shows it is significantly more religious than any other region, and a sizable chunk of residents are Christian. Surveys suggest locals are far more likely to frown on same-sex relationships and sex before marriage. And it is partly responsible for the most electorally successful Tory politician in three decades. What is this rightwing heartland, this blue nirvana?
Try: London, the city that made Boris Johnson its mayor. Twice.
Political cliche asserts that the capital is some kind of liberal, secular, leftist haven in a largely conservative England – and that may be true, in parts. But the demographic reality is far more interesting, reflecting decades of migration and mixing. In inner London, for instance, Catholics make up the single largest faith. Its political record is also varied. For three decades, Margaret Thatcher was a London MP, and in the 1987 election the Iron Lady did better in the capital than the rest of the UK. Into the 1990s, Labour analysts worried about “the London effect”. At the last mayoral race, even the unimpressive Conservative Shaun Bailey secured a chunky share of the vote.
That history, plus the fact that Sadiq Khan is now running for his third term as mayor, means the Tories should be in with a shout of taking back the capital. Given that the London election is almost a year away, and that neither the Liberal Democrats nor the Conservatives have picked their contender, it is far too soon for an analysis of either people or platforms. But one early question is being asked: could the Conservatives have made a more disastrous start to this contest?
First, there was the party’s shortlist of candidates, which excluded obvious names such as Paul Scully, the minister for London, as well as Samuel Kasumu, who resigned as a Downing Street adviser on race issues over the government’s culture-warring. Of the three finalists, Daniel Korski dropped out a few days ago over allegations of groping (which he denies).
And then there were two. Susan Hall is a longstanding member of the London assembly, who once compared the storming of the Capitol with disgruntled remainers – not the most obviously winning move in a city that voted 60% for remain. Or Tory members can pick Mozammel Hossain, a barrister with zero experience of politics. Although Mr Hossain has a remarkable life story, the pair are relatively obscure figures vying to take on a mayor known by his first name. Mr Khan has many critics, not least those attacking him in court this week over his plans to make all of London an ultra-low emission zone. But so far he lacks a heavyweight challenger.
This speaks volumes about Rishi Sunak’s lowered ambitions. Just four years ago, the Tories forged an electoral alliance stretching from Surrey to Sedgefield; now they are scrabbling to hold on to safe seats. It is also bad for London, which, after the banking crash, Brexit and much courting of the “red wall”, desperately needs to consider its future.
Another lazy cliche of the capital casts it as the place where streets are paved with gold. Yet it has serious problems with housing, the gig economy and massive inequality. They deserve full and fair debate that produces thorough solutions. It is a shame that the Tories seem not to want to play their part.
