Humza Yousaf has already entered the record books of Scottish politics as the new party leader with the shortest honeymoon – none. Also, perhaps, as author of one the all-time great understatements. “Certainly not helpful,” was Mr Yousaf’s verdict when asked about the arrest of Colin Beattie, the Scottish National party’s treasurer, on the day the first minister was due to set out his vision for government.
Mr Yousaf reminded his audience, correctly, that Mr Beattie has a right to be presumed innocent. It is too early to form a definitive judgment about SNP finances or the individuals who have been questioned by police, including Peter Murrell, the party’s chief executive and husband of the former first minister Nicola Sturgeon.
It is not too early to say that the situation is a calamity for the party that has governed Scotland, alone or in coalition, since 2007. Voters will not forget television pictures of police cordons at Ms Sturgeon’s family home, nor will they be wholly reassured by her successor’s assertion that the party, despite having difficulty getting its accounts audited, is “not close to bankruptcy”.
The crisis is about more than money. It has origins in the time when the SNP looked unassailable as the dominant force in Scottish politics, run by a highly disciplined machine controlled – micromanaged, say some critics – by Ms Sturgeon. Cracks opened up quickly in the leadership contest that followed her surprise resignation in February. Mr Yousaf was widely understood to be the preferred successor. The narrow margin of his victory over Kate Forbes, the former finance secretary, expressed fundamental divisions over policy, strategy, culture and Ms Sturgeon’s legacy. The ballot process also revealed that the party had lost tens of thousands of members in recent years, which indicated both a slowing of ideological momentum and a likely revenue shortfall.
Every political party wins power by amassing a coalition of voters who might disagree on some issues but are aligned enough on others to support the same manifesto (or are attracted by the same slogan declared by the same leader). For the SNP, there was one galvanising issue – independence – that trumped every other potentially fissiparous topic. Nationalist dominance was achieved by persuading enough people that unionist parties had deficient loyalty, being insufficiently committed to the success of a fully sovereign Scotland.
Lack of progress in securing a second referendum has tested nationalist patience. It has also exposed the SNP to a force more dangerous to its hegemony than any opposition party – gravity.
The weight of a long incumbency through exceptionally volatile times was beginning to tell on Ms Sturgeon. She bequeaths a record of underperforming public services, and some unpopular policies, to an exhausted apparatus. Her personal standing as first minister, reaching national figurehead status during the pandemic, carried the SNP through scandals and scrapes. She was a unifying emblem for those who craved independence and a tricky target for those who opposed it. Her departure was sure to shift the dynamics of Scottish politics, even before the cascade of events that have raised questions about the organisational and financial security of her party.
Mr Yousaf, whatever his talents might be, risks being overwhelmed by the sheer scale of the task he faces. Given how high the SNP flew for so long, the return of gravity threatens a perilous descent.
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