Sir Ed Davey did not pull his punches on Tuesday as he wrapped up the Liberal Democrats’ conference. The party leader made it clear that the Tories would be the Lib Dems’ main opponent at the next general election. Corrupt, chaotic and careless were among the nicer things he called Conservative leaders. He drew laughter by claiming that a party member, who is a clown, had a point when he complained that it was unfair on his profession for the Lib Dem leader to keep comparing the Tories to his colleagues. However, there was no disguising his seriousness about getting rid of the current ruling “shambles”.
The Lib Dems won’t form the next government, but they can help oust the Tories. Sir Ed is building a social base in the so-called “blue wall” seats in south-east England of Conservative-leaning voters put off by ministerial incompetence and shabby public services. The party’s endorsement of proportional representation to ensure every vote counts has the advantage of increasing the present distance from both the main parties for potential electoral advantage. The Lib Dem strategy to peel off Tories in marginal seats has been working so far. When Sir Ed took over in 2020 the party had 11 MPs. Today it has 15 after a string of stunning byelection victories.
A general election will be tougher going. For the Lib Dems to win seats requires both efficient tactical voting, with Labour supporters lending Lib Dems their votes, and a significant swing away from the Conservatives in blue wall seats. That explains why Sir Ed hints that his party might back a minority Labour administration while ruling out deals with the Tories.
But the course of pact-making rarely runs smoothly. Next month’s byelection in Mid Bedfordshire, one of the few seats in which both Labour and the Lib Dems think they can win, has seen goodwill between the parties temporarily evaporate. Britain is also a different country to the one in 1997 in which the Lib Dems abandoned their policy of “equidistance” and became part of an unofficial anti-Conservative party alliance.
Sir Ed is wily enough to recognise that he needs to be distinctive, chiding Labour – rightfully – for its timidity over a thin policy offering and stealing its centre-left rival’s clothing by imposing windfall taxes on banks and oil companies to “fund” free social care while promising a legal guarantee that anyone referred for cancer treatment will be seen in two months. Because the party wants a “balanced” budget, it will face questions over how it will “pay” for the latter – having dropped plans to put a penny on income tax.
Sir Ed made this promise more believable because of how he dealt with bewildering childhood tragedy. He lost his father and mother to cancer before he was 16. He also has a disabled son. It is hard not to see his backstory in Lib Dem policies. Casting the Lib Dems as the party of the NHS is bold but credible – given that a Liberal, William Beveridge, can claim to have invented it. Last year a fifth of the over-50s who have dropped out of the workforce were thought to be on an NHS waiting list. The NHS falling apart isn’t just a health problem, it’s an economic problem. Ministers have reportedly considered fast-tracking treatments to get the jobless back to work. That’s not the way to fix it. By recognising this issue – and outlining a solution – the Lib Dems will force their bigger rivals to deal with it.
