“Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold.” In an age of political upheaval in liberal democracies, the poetic imagination of William Butler Yeats has haunted politicians worried about a lurch to extremes. Following last month’s European elections, which saw a surge in support for the far right, the European Commission president, Ursula von der Leyen, was the latest to invoke Yeats’ famous line in The Second Coming. But she did so with a twist, bullishly noting: “There remains a majority in the centre for a strong Europe and that is crucial for stability. In other words, the centre is holding.”
Holding maybe, but certainly not thriving. On core themes, Ms von der Leyen – and mainstream European politicians more generally – have adopted a defensive crouch, allowing authoritarian nationalists such as Italy’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, to dictate the agenda. There have been U-turns and obfuscations on net zero targets, and deals with dubious regimes to keep asylum seekers out of Europe.
Post-election, an insidious political undertow is in danger of tugging the European parliament rightwards, as emboldened ultranationalist parties coalesce – albeit in a fragmented and fractious manner. Ms Meloni, who has sought to present herself as the respectable face of the radical right, has railed against the exclusion from top jobs of MEPs in her European Conservatives and Reformists group. Meanwhile, Marine Le Pen last week signed up her National Rally party to a new alliance formed by the Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán.
Virulently Eurosceptic, anti-immigrant and receptive to Vladimir Putin’s overtures, Mr Orbán’s Patriots for Europe group is now the third-biggest force in the parliament, and its largest ever extreme-right bloc. Even further beyond the pale, Germany’s Alternative für Deutschland has managed to find enough allies to form its own “Europe of Sovereign Nations” grouping, despite its lead candidate in the elections outing himself as a Nazi apologist.
After the attack on Donald Trump, the stakes have been raised. Against this depressing backdrop, Ms von der Leyen, a German Christian Democrat, will on Thursday seek a mandate from MEPs for a second term. In theory, the votes of the three mainstream groupings who backed her candidacy last time – the centre-right EPP, the Socialists and Democrats, and the liberal Renew group – should be enough. But the support of the Greens may also be necessary in what will be an unpredictable secret ballot. That will require Ms von der Leyen to guarantee a more robust defence of Europe’s green deal than has recently been the case.
As a polarised America is beset by angst and political uncertainty, and Mr Putin seeks to outlast the west’s support for Ukraine, Europe needs the centre to hold once again. But progressive forces in Brussels need to get on the front foot. It is time to recognise that a strategy of accommodation with rightwing populism, accompanied by concessions and the co-option of parts of its agenda, only facilitates its advance. A bolder, more dynamic vision of Europe than Ms von der Leyen is likely to offer is required.
As Raphaël Glucksmann, an influential figure in France’s New Popular Front (NPF), has argued, Brussels “dogmas” of free trade and budgetary austerity have constricted governments’ capacity to respond to new and challenging economic times. The resulting sense of insecurity, particularly among blue-collar electorates, has been a gift to the xenophobic nationalist right. In this month’s tumultuous election, the NPF’s narrow victory saw off Ms Le Pen when her party appeared to be on the threshold of power. There are lessons here for a European centre that needs not just to “hold”, but to reinvent itself to take on the far right.
