Antony Blinken’s unannounced visit to Kyiv on Tuesday was a welcome and timely show of support. It was the US secretary of state’s first trip to Ukraine since America belatedly signed off on a $61bn aid package last month, allowing a desperately needed supply of new arms to finally flow to troops in the east. As Mr Blinken met President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in the capital, events continued to underline how urgently such assistance – and much more of the same – is required.
The ultimate scope of Russia’s significant offensive in the Kharkiv region is yet to become clear. In part it may be intended to create a buffer zone, protecting Russian territory close to the north-east border. But as thousands of residents are once more displaced, and the prospect looms of a huge artillery assault on the city of Kharkiv, the incursions are also diverting threadbare Ukrainian resources from the eastern front. That may facilitate new Russian breakthroughs in the Donbas region.
Faced with a war of attrition along a vast frontline – and with recruitment a pressing and increasingly fraught issue – Ukrainian forces are outnumbered and outgunned. But the west could have done more in recent months to bolster defences, in anticipation of an offensive of this kind. The horror that has unfolded in Israel and Gaza has diverted international attention and focus. Political dysfunction in Washington, and a cumbersome decision-making and delivery process in Brussels, have compounded the problem. In consequence, Ukraine’s military risks being left short, as what may be a crucial phase in Vladimir Putin’s brutal, illegal war begins.
As he has been obliged to do with allies throughout the war, Mr Zelenskiy welcomed Mr Blinken by expressing gratitude for the help received, while urgently pleading for more. The west has been wary of delivering long-range weapons that could be used to take the war deep into Russian territory. But upping the pace and level of assistance need not cross red lines. Two more air defence systems, Mr Zelenskiy told the secretary of state, were necessary for the defence of Kharkiv, Ukraine’s second city. As relentless Russian aerial barrages have become bigger and more sophisticated, limited resources are forcing Ukrainian commanders to choose between defending urban centres and crucial infrastructure. A reboot of defensive capacities is required if they are not to risk being overwhelmed.
Mr Blinken’s visit was also timely for a second reason. Almost a thousand miles to the south of Kharkiv, in Tbilisi, the Georgian ruling party’s flirtations with a pro-Moscow position are coming to a dangerous and violent head. The appointment earlier this year of a new pro-Russian prime minister, after a government reshuffle, has been followed by a crackdown on LGBTQ+ rights and a new “foreign agents” bill, passed in the Georgian parliament on Tuesday.
Transparently, the purpose of the law is to legitimise harassment and stigmatisation of civil rights groups and non-governmental organisations deemed to be promoting a liberal, “pro-western” agenda. The seemingly deliberate jeopardising of Georgia’s ambitions to join the EU, which has condemned the thuggish suppression of protests against the bill, points ominously towards the kind of Russian-influenced destabilisation already evident in Moldova.
Events in Tbilisi underline the geopolitical stakes being played for as Mr Putin seeks to grind out a winning position of strength in Ukraine, and reconstitute Russian hegemony elsewhere. As the pace suddenly quickens after a period of relative stalemate, and the Kremlin seeks to overwhelm Kyiv through sheer weight of numbers and materiel, the west must keep its focus and ensure that Ukraine continues to receive backing.
