There are three ways that civilians can die in the war closing in on El Fasher, the only major city in Sudan’s Darfur region yet to be taken by the Rapid Support Forces, and they are already dying in two of them. The first is deprivation: the blockade of humanitarian aid has intensified already desperate circumstances. The second is crossfire. Two children and at least one caregiver were killed when an airstrike by the Sudanese armed forces hit close to a paediatric hospital at the weekend, according to Médecins Sans Frontières.
The third, warns Nathaniel Raymond, executive director of Yale University’s Humanitarian Research Laboratory, is targeted mass killing. More than 1.5 million people are in the city, many having fled fighting elsewhere. The Raoul Wallenberg Centre for Human Rights has concluded that genocide is occurring in Darfur again – only two decades after it horrified the world. Human Rights Watch said last week that crimes against humanity were committed by the RSF and allied militias against the ethnic Masalit and other non-Arab populations in and around El Geneina last year, with thousands dying. The British government has said the violence displayed “all the hallmarks of ethnic cleansing”. There is every reason to fear that El Fasher will see more.
The suffering wreaked upon Sudan in just over a year of war is terrifying. The army chief Gen Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and Lt Gen Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo – known as “Hemedti” – of the RSF paramilitaries turned upon each other last April. The direst predictions made then are coming true. At least 14,700 people have died. Almost 25 million people – more than half the population – need aid. More than 8 million people are displaced. Both sides have committed war crimes.
The RSF’s record is grim and well-documented and they have already razed villages around El Fasher. The SAF have also escalated matters. Analysts suspect they see the fight – which they have mostly subcontracted to local allies – as tying down the RSF and damaging them politically.
Outside parties have fuelled this civil war. The United Arab Emirates has backed the RSF, and Iran and Egypt supported Gen Burhan; Russia appears to be trying to play both sides. Yet there are signs that the UAE may belatedly be recognising the reputational costs as diplomatic efforts ramp up.
The UK has a special responsibility, given that it leads on Sudan at the security council. Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the US ambassador to the UN, has warned that an attack on El Fasher would be a “large-scale massacre … a disaster on top of a disaster” and threatened consequences if it goes ahead. The US, UK and others have imposed sanctions on entities linked to the RSF and the SAF.
Pressure at all levels – from the UN security council to regional governments engaging with lower level commanders – is needed to restore the informal truce in place around El Fasher late last year. The SAF must also be pressed to commit to serious negotiations on a ceasefire and an end to the war, despite Gen Burhan’s unrealistic assessment of his position. NGOs and Sudanese activists are right to call for an arms embargo on Sudan as a whole and a new UN mission to protect civilians, though a more plausible first step might be an agreement for third-party monitors in El Fasher. The world’s largest humanitarian crisis has unfolded to widespread indifference and cynicism. That cannot continue. There is no more time to be lost.
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