Yevgeny Prigozhin called off his march on Moscow on Saturday every bit as abruptly as he had begun his rebellion the previous day. But the Wagner group’s armed mutiny, however short-lived, has diminished Vladimir Putin in the eyes of both the elite and ordinary Russians. The mercenaries had taken over the Russian southern military command in Rostov-on-Don, a logistical hub for the Ukraine invasion, before racing towards the capital. Mr Putin was forced to warn of “a deadly threat to our state” and Moscow’s mayor urged residents to stay at home.
While Mr Prigozhin’s uprising looks like a desperate act to stop his private army being incorporated into regular forces, some wonder if broader intra-elite conflict lies in the background. The Wagner chief had become increasingly brazen in his attacks on the defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, and commander in chief, Valery Gerasimov. Initially there were suggestions that he might be acting with the approval of the Kremlin. But on Friday, Mr Prigozhin attacked not only the execution of the war but its very rationale, before claiming that Russian forces had killed scores of his men in a rocket attack and demanding revenge on the “evil” military leadership. A day later – after Mr Putin accused him of treason – he challenged his master outright for the first time.
Mr Prigozhin’s hubris was already astounding. His unlikely rise saw him evolve from petty thug to a thug on a grand scale, via a hotdog stand and military catering contracts. Wagner, a network of companies, is believed to have sent mercenaries to about 30 countries. Mr Prigozhin set up troll factories, too, and was indicted in the US over interference in the 2016 US election. Wagner was judged to allow Russia “plausible deniability”, and its founder himself disclaimed the group, suing media who had alleged connections before acknowledging his role last September.
His claim that he stood down his men to prevent bloodshed raised eyebrows, given the atrocities of which Wagner forces have been accused in Ukraine, Syria, Central African Republic and other nations. He presumably realised that he could not amass enough support. But he has not been punished – yet – and was said to be going to Belarus, supposedly following the mediation of its leader, Alexander Lukashenko. The fighters who supported the uprising will reportedly be forgiven; others subsumed into the regular military, as planned. The disintegration of Wagner forces could be helpful to Ukraine’s counteroffensive, as could the Russian leadership’s distraction. More critical may be this episode’s impact on the morale of Russian troops and relations among its ruling clique. The deal, and Mr Prigozhin’s survival, symbolise Mr Putin’s weakness.
On Saturday, the Russian leader drew parallels with wartime events in 1917 that led to “destruction of the army and the state”. Others cited 1991: Mikhail Gorbachev saw off a coup, but neither he nor the Soviet Union lasted the year. Few assume the same fate for Mr Putin. But his grip on his country has never faced greater threat. In the last 18 months he has been dealt two great blows entirely of his own creation: his failed attempt to take Kyiv and bring Ukraine to heel, and now the rebellion by his own protege, with forces he enabled. The uncertainty and humiliation may make him more dangerous. While Mr Prigozhin’s uprising appears to be over, its consequences are only starting to unfold.
Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a response of up to 300 words by email to be considered for publication in our letters section, please click here.
