Despite the viscerally shocking nature of images of a tumbling aircraft, and of the conflagration that followed, Yevgeny Prigozhin’s reported death in a plane crash on Wednesday was one of the least surprising developments of the last 18 months. Russian aviation officials listed the Wagner group chief and senior commander, Dmitry Utkin, among the 10 onboard the jet, all of whom died.
Ever since he led the mutiny by his Wagner group of mercenaries two months ago, Prigozhin’s death was assumed by many to be imminent. Though he denounced military leaders rather than his patron, the challenge to Vladimir Putin was unprecedented, and the Russian president called him a traitor. That the mutiny was not decisively suppressed but ended with a deal looked more humiliating. William Burns, the CIA chief, suggested last month that for Russians used to seeing their president in control, “the question was ‘Does the emperor have no clothes?’ or at least ‘Why is it taking him so long for him to get dressed?’”.
Though wild speculation about Prigozhin’s fate is rife, the plane crash looked to most like the answer: a deliberately spectacular restatement of Mr Putin’s power. “Absolutely clear signal to all the elites,” wrote the Russian journalist Ksenia Sobchak. But even if it did have another cause, the assumption that it was retaliation is in the Kremlin’s interests.
The nationalist right saw this violent and brutal man as one of their own, and in many cases shared his contempt for Russian military leadership. But even sympathisers saw the mutiny as a step too far. And if some see this death as a betrayal, fewer than ever will dare to speak out. It came as Sergei Surovikin, a close ally of Prigozhin, was removed as commander of aerospace forces. Igor Girkin, a prominent pro-war critic of the president, was detained last month on extremism charges. The message is clear: no challenge will be brooked from any quarter.
That warning, of course, is not new. There is a long roll call of Putin enemies who have met conspicuous demises. But while the crash strengthens the Russian president’s grip, it also underlines the serial failures of his invasion of Ukraine. Prigozhin’s death is unlikely to make much difference on the battlefield, given that Wagner fighters had already withdrawn, and it may have silenced widespread anger with the top brass – but it hasn’t ended it.
Wagner now appears to have been essentially dismembered. It grew from Prigozhin’s ability to forge connections with unsavoury figures, and was united largely by his charisma. Its military capabilities were often less significant than its bogeyman status. Other private companies will probably take up some of its work. But Mr Putin will not make the same mistake of allowing them untrammelled growth and largely free rein.
In any case, Wagner may have served its purpose. Plausible deniability is now less important. Last year’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine replaced covert intervention in its east. Wagner has left a grim trail in places such as Central African Republic, but Russia is now more upfront about its role in Africa – and more ambitious, wooing US allies such as Kenya. The head of Russian military intelligence’s offensive operations unit was present at last month’s Russia-Africa summit. At home and abroad, Mr Putin’s intentions now appear clearer than ever.
