Back in 2018, as Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party (PiS) neared the end of its first term in office, its leader, Jarosław Kaczyński, told one newspaper that his radical right project had only just begun. “We are preparing a long march,” said Mr Kaczyński, “one needs, not two, but three terms.”
On Sunday, Poles turned out in extraordinary numbers determined to thwart that ambition, and they appear to have succeeded in remarkable fashion. Provisional results indicate that the highest election turnout since the fall of communism delivered a famous and unexpectedly clear victory for the opposition coalition of parties. Though PiS emerged once more as the largest electoral force, it lost its majority and seemingly has no viable route to constructing a new one. For Poland, and for the rest of Europe, this constitutes a hugely consequential result. For progressives, it is one to celebrate.
During eight years in power, PiS has become a European brand leader for illiberal politics. In government it has gradually taken a wrecking ball to the checks, balances and cultural assumptions that underpin mainstream democracies. The independence of the judiciary and media has been undermined, and state television turned into a mouthpiece for PiS propaganda. Non-European migrants and LGBTQ+ communities have been demonised and presented as threats to the integrity of the nation. Conservative Catholic influence has been mobilised in a draconian crackdown on abortion rights, prompting mass protests. Together with Viktor Orbán’s Hungary, Mr Kaczyński’s Poland has treated European Union values and norms with contempt, and resisted cooperation on issues such as the migration crisis.
Assuming the result is confirmed, the main opposition leader, Donald Tusk, will have a chance to halt this oppressive, authoritarian and confrontational direction of travel. On the international stage, given Poland’s status as one the EU’s most strategically significant member states, this will bring a vital boost to European unity in deeply challenging times. A former president of the European Council, Mr Tusk can be expected to resolve the rule-of-law issues that have dogged relations with Brussels since 2015. Just as significantly, Poland under his leadership would play a supportive role in maintaining western support for Ukraine, and in sensitive future negotiations over EU expansion to the east.
Domestically, repairing the civic and constitutional damage done over the past eight years will not be straightforward. Andrzej Duda, the country’s PiS-aligned president, remains in office, and managing a coalition government comprising Mr Tusk’s centrist Civic Platform party, the centre-right and the left promises to be complicated. Exit poll voting data from Sunday confirms the depth of the support that PiS retains in provincial and rural areas, and among the less well educated. If Mr Tusk wishes to unify a polarised country after the bitterest of campaigns, he will need to offer more to such constituencies.
These are potential problems and issues for the future though. The stunning 73% turnout on Sunday – 11% higher than in 2019 – testifies to a popular mobilisation against PiS that has stopped Mr Kaczyński’s “long march” in its tracks. The young, in particular, seem to have heeded calls to make their votes count. Those who did have played their part in an uplifting and vital reaffirmation of liberal democratic values in Poland.
