A few years ago, it would have sounded fantastical to suggest that massed North Korean soldiers would fight on a European battlefield – as a Ukrainian commander noted last month. Yet about 10,000 are now thought to be fighting for Moscow, and on Tuesday a US official reported that “several hundred” had died in Russia’s Kursk region.
North Korea has one of the largest armies in the world, with more than 1.25 million personnel in a country of just 26 million. Despite its extraordinary nuclear and missile achievements, much of its vast stockpile of weaponry is thought to be out of date – though that hasn’t stopped it shipping as much as $5.5bn worth of arms and ammunition to Russia. The military has not engaged in large-scale combat since the end of the Korean war in 1953. At home, soldiers spend significant time trying to acquire food or basic supplies, including fuel.
Those sent, however, are thought to include elite troops trained in infiltration, sabotage and assassination missions – certainly more proficient than raw Russian conscripts, though language and cultural differences may pose problems. Moscow is likely to consider North Koreans even more expendable than its fighters, since they carry no domestic political cost. But the calculation is little different for North Korea itself. The death toll will not be reported by state media there. Few families would dare risk complaining. And given the desperate poverty, any financial compensation and status improvement could transform the lives of those bereaved.
The wages for those still fighting ($2,000 per soldier per month, South Korean intelligence believes) will almost all be claimed by the regime, which is also welcoming sorely needed oil and grain supplies. The news of the deal with Moscow sparked fears of significant technology transfer, and that remains the greatest concern. But North Korea may well regard the presence of troops, and their apparent involvement in fighting, as a reward rather than a cost – offering its military experience of combat and more modern weaponry. South Korean officials believe they are testing North Korean missiles against western arms. All this raises the prospect of North Koreans fighting in more global conflicts and heightens fears of greater instability in Asia.
China will not be thrilled. It already has a tense relationship with the country it has long propped up. Now Vladimir Putin has handed North Korea increased bargaining power with its patron. Moscow and Pyongyang signed a mutual defence and cooperation treaty this summer, drawn together not only by immediate need but also their underlying belief that the US is linking Nato and east Asian alliances. This is in turn moving South Korea closer to Nato and Japan, though Seoul’s political crisis complicates matters.
Another concern for North Korea, however, should perhaps be that thousands of its fighters see a way of life that – even in Kursk, or devastated areas of Ukraine – may look startlingly comfortable compared with dire conditions back home. Ukrainian sources have claimed that some North Koreans have already deserted. Special forces will enjoy better-than-average conditions and will have been vetted for political reliability. But thousands of soldiers are likely to return home and discuss what they have seen, if only with their very nearest and dearest, in a system that has long been reliant on isolating as well as terrorising its population.
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