While Benjamin Netanyahu picks fights at home and abroad, he is more closely tied than ever to the worst parts of the domestic political realm. Last week, Israel’s prime minister laid into its chief ally, the US, which has reproved him but done little to stop the war in Gaza, or avert the looming and surely disastrous conflict with Hezbollah. On Monday, Israel’s ambassador to the UN, Gilad Erdan, labelled António Guterres an “accomplice to terror” and alleged his sole aim had been “to help Hamas survive this war”, after the secretary-general accused Israel (without directly naming it) of spreading misinformation about him.
Yet Mr Netanyahu will go to any lengths to keep his far-right coalition partners in the fold. He granted political legitimacy to the Otzma Yehudit party of Itamar Ben-Gvir, the national security minister, and to the Religious Zionist party of the finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, when he invited them into power. He clings to them increasingly desperately. Without them, he faces not only the loss of his position but trial on the corruption charges that have hung over his head for so long. The far right saw off US attempts to reach a ceasefire and hostage deal, laying bare the growing rift between the Israel Defense Forces and the government.
Mr Netanyahu granted Mr Smotrich extensive powers over Israeli settlements and Palestinian construction in the occupied West Bank, in exchange for his initial political support. In the last month, the military has transferred legal powers in the West Bank to pro-settler civilian officials working for Mr Smotrich, who has spelt out his active effort to annex it, in breach of international law. He told colleagues that he was “establish[ing] facts on the ground”, adding: “We will establish sovereignty … first on the ground and then through legislation. ...My life’s mission is to thwart the establishment of a Palestinian state.” Separately, he has claimed that Mr Netanyahu is “with us full on”.
Then, on Tuesday, Israel’s supreme court ruled that ultra-Orthodox men must be drafted for military service, threatening the coalition. The exemption originated when the Haredi community was small; now it is projected to account for more than a fifth of the population by 2042. This is a long-running battle, with governments repeatedly dodging the issue to avoid alienating ultra-Orthodox voters.
But the row has been supercharged by the war in Gaza and escalating clashes with Hezbollah. Last week, the government backed a draft bill raising the exemption age for reservists and expanding the length of service. For many Israelis – including in the prime minister’s Likud party – the exemption no longer looks like an abstract issue but a political favour granted at the direct expense of themselves or their children.
Mr Netanyahu’s departure would not be a magic solution: another prime minister’s policies on Hezbollah and Gaza’s future would probably not look so different. The Biden administration remains reluctant to use its potential leverage – arms supplies, diplomatic positioning and sanctions even against Mr Smotrich – as it should to stop the war in Gaza and the tightening hold on the West Bank. But an administration governed by a sober consideration of Israel’s needs and priorities, rather than driven by personal political survival, might at least find its way to a hostage-and-ceasefire deal and free itself from the dangerous grip of the far right.
