As Emmanuel Macron sought radically to reform France’s pensions system in 2019, one of his senior lieutenants warned that intense opposition in the streets would cut no ice. “We are not slowing down anything,” said Gilles Le Gendre, the then leader of Mr Macron’s La République En Marche party in the national assembly. “This is the emblematic reform of Macronism.”
In fact, things subsequently slowed down to a complete halt, as Covid forced the proposed changes to be put to one side. But three and a bit years on, it is a case of deja vu. On Tuesday, more than 1.2 million people turned out across France – as rolling public sector strikes were launched in protest at Mr Macron’s plans to raise the retirement age from 62 to 64. A clear majority of the population supported the walkouts, despite the disruption to public transport, schools, local services and other sectors; some polls have estimated that up to 80% of under-65s oppose the president’s proposals.
Mr Macron’s case for raising the minimum retirement age is broadly similar to that made in other countries, such as Britain, where the threshold is being raised to 67. An older population in which more people are living for longer, the president argues, has made current arrangements financially unsustainable.
There is no doubt that French spending on pensions is comparatively generous, taken as a proportion of GDP. But an autumn report by the country’s pensions advisory council found that an annual deficit of €10bn to €12bn was manageable in the context of total expenditure amounting to €340bn. It also predicted a gradual return to breaking even from the mid-2030s, partly as a result of previous waves of reform.
Raising the retirement age is thus a political choice Mr Macron has decided to make, rather than an economic imperative. The reforms are part of a wider strategy to address labour shortages. In November, the government announced that the amount of time unemployed workers could claim full benefits could be reduced by a quarter, in order to encourage people back to work.
Doubtless Mr Macron hopes that support for the strikes will gradually diminish. But the sheer breadth of popular opposition – amid a cost of living crisis and a widespread sense of falling living standards – should give the president pause for thought. Mr Macron’s mandate for reform is weaker than in his first term. He has admitted that he partly owed a second, much narrower, election victory over Marine Le Pen to a “republican front” of voters determined to keep the radical right out of power. Many of those voters will have been on the streets this week, bitterly opposing his reforms. In the national assembly, his prime minister, Élisabeth Borne, leads a minority government, which will need the support of the centre right to squeak over the line in an eventual pensions vote.
In the absence of a parliamentary majority, Mr Macron has not ruled out forcing through the legislation by decree if necessary. That would be bad for French democracy and a gift to Ms Le Pen, who is successfully exploiting the crisis to position the radical right as a defender of mainstream social rights. Mr Macron has no further need to court electoral popularity in what will be his final term of office. But he should still tread with extreme care over such fraught terrain.
