There are lessons to be learned from the Rochdale byelection. One is that when Labour fails to listen to its supporters or blames them for defecting, it risks losing its strongholds. Another is that the Tories are being held responsible at the ballot box for the decay in urban Britain. While local concerns figured in George Galloway’s campaign, it was the geopolitics of the war in Gaza – and the inadequate responses from the main two parties – that helped the former Labour MP win the seat.
Mr Galloway, a strident critic of Israel, is living proof that there is power without office. Labour rushed this byelection – firing the starting gun before its last MP, Sir Tony Lloyd, was even buried – to stop Mr Galloway, a formidable campaigner, from building up momentum in the seat, where almost a third of voters are Muslim. A demagogic opportunist, Mr Galloway has represented four cities and three parties in his political career. Only Winston Churchill constituency-hopped as much. It is unlikely that local issues will often occupy Mr Galloway in the Commons, especially while there is salt to be rubbed into Labour’s wounds over Gaza.
It is not only Muslim electors who are angry. Sir Keir Starmer will no doubt shrug off Mr Galloway’s warning that his party “lost the confidence of millions of their voters who loyally and traditionally” voted Labour as hyperbolic. But Sir Keir’s party can trace its roots back to strikes by Bradford textile workers – across the Pennines from Rochdale – at the turn of the last century. Then, a similar cry was heard about a growing sense of anti-Liberalism: “We have had two parties in the past, the can’ts and the won’ts, and it is now time we had a party that will.”
Following in the slipstream of the US backing of apparent Israeli war crimes has not yet dented the opposition’s ratings. It has also enabled the party to duck questions about not having a distinctive policy over conflict in the Middle East that responds to its voters’ concerns. While France’s president condemns the shooting of Palestinian civilians who “have been targeted by Israeli soldiers” amid chaotic aid deliveries, Britain’s main opposition party leader says nothing. He refuses to join pleas from progressive politicians in 12 countries for Britain to enforce an arms embargo on Israel as a consequence of the international court of justice’s ruling that Israeli forces must not commit acts of genocide in Gaza.
Labour politicians seem irritated that their heavily caveated calls for a “ceasefire” fall on deaf ears. But as Neal Lawson from the Compass thinktank points out, Labour risks taking its support from Muslim voters for granted on the assumption they have nowhere else to go. This thinking previously disguised slow collapses in support in Scotland and northern “red wall” seats.
Voters are not obliged to cast their ballots for any party. They must be convinced. Israel’s actions have far exceeded its right to pursue those responsible for Hamas’s horrific attack; Labour should have denounced that with moral robustness.
Next week’s budget will see the Tories offer imaginary long-term spending cuts and short-term tax giveaways. A more confident Labour party would break with 14 years of wishful thinking and failure. It cannot rely on just not being the Conservatives. In a change election, Labour needs to earn votes by making the case for inspiring and transformational change.
