When David Cameron was leader of the opposition and well-placed to become prime minister, he urged his colleagues not to rock the boat by “banging on” about Europe. But on they banged, eventually driving Britain out of the European Union.
Now it is Sir Keir Starmer who frets about European zeal unbalancing his stride towards power, although this time the demand is reconciliation with Brussels. The opposition leader’s electoral route to Downing Street passes through pockets of pro-Brexit opinion and he doesn’t want to upset swing voters with an appearance of contempt for their judgment.
The two situations are not equivalent. Tory Eurosceptic ultras waged a mythological crusade against an imaginary oppressor. Labour’s pro-Europeans have evidence that Brexit isn’t working.
It might not be possible to separate out the exact portion of a cost of living crisis that is caused by the UK’s self-imposed exile from the EU single market, but it is beyond doubt that raising barriers to trade and impeding labour flows have increased costs, gunged up supply chains and stoked inflation. Business investment has been flat since the referendum – a reflection of general uncertainty and mistrust in a capricious and incompetent British government.
Those facts are percolating through the national conversation. Opinion polls show consistent majorities for the view that Brexit has been bad for Britain. Even more slowly, the opposition is noticing the change. In a speech to a trade conference earlier this week, David Lammy made an emphatic commitment to European rapprochement. “The EU are our biggest trading partners and our allies as we face war on our continent,” the shadow foreign secretary said. “If you do not think Britain’s relationship with Europe is of fundamental importance to our future, you are living in a fantasy.”
On the substance of what a closer relationship might look like, Mr Lammy is less bold. Labour is committed to a programme of entirely sensible tinkering at the edges of the problem – alignment with EU regulations as a precondition for lowering trade barriers; more liberal visa policies; renewed partnership with cultural and scientific institutions that make up the wider constellation of the European project.
That is an agenda for reintegration at the periphery of Europe, which is sound diplomacy and helpful at the economic margins, but cannot substantially shift the dial as long as Britain is still outside the single market and customs union. On that front, Labour is wedded to a hard Brexit, not least because anything softer reopens questions of sovereignty and immigration that Sir Keir would rather keep closed in the run-up to a general election. There may be a growing audience for Brexit-bashing, but it is concentrated in seats that already vote Labour, and even many pro-Europeans balk at the prospect of stirring up bitter divisions.
An epic U-turn on Britain’s policy towards Europe would not be a simple or quick manoeuvre, and could not anyway be arranged from opposition. The path of what is politically available is tending towards economic rationality, but not as fast as some pro-Europeans would like. Labour’s caution might be frustrating, but the direction of travel is the right one.
