For almost a year now, the danger of a wider regional conflagration has shadowed the spiralling death toll in Gaza. The escalation between Israel and Hezbollah, which was feared from the beginning, has happened, month by month. Israel’s military says that it is “not looking for wars”. This is not yet the all-out ground conflict that many have anticipated. But with more than 550 already dead in Israel’s strikes on alleged Hezbollah targets in Lebanon – including 50 children and 94 women, according to health authorities – what is this if not a war?
Opening the UN general assembly in New York, the secretary general, António Guterres, rightly warned that the world “cannot afford Lebanon to become another Gaza”. Even if Israel intended this week’s assault as a substitute for, rather than precursor to, a ground invasion, it cannot predict the consequences.
The Hamas atrocities of 7 October, and the Hezbollah shelling that immediately followed, ensured that many Israelis could no longer contemplate living in the latter’s shadow. Tens of thousands have fled their homes in the north, just as tens of thousands of people have fled Lebanon’s south as cross-border clashes have intensified. The domestic pressure on the Israeli government to push back the militants to north of the Litani River in Lebanon, allowing its citizens to return home, has grown. Factor in Israel’s most rightwing government in history, and a prime minister widely suspected of counting on ongoing conflict to keep him in power, staving off corruption cases.
Joe Biden, now a lame duck president, has not changed Benjamin Netanyahu’s mind. The deadly attacks on Hezbollah communication devices came days after US officials met with Mr Netanyahu to try to dissuade him from further escalation. He probably hopes that Donald Trump will soon be back in the White House.
Neither Hezbollah nor its patron Iran want a full-scale war with Israel; the group’s priority is survival. But the belief that Israel can de-escalate through escalation ignores the fact that such attacks have their own momentum. Israel appears to be targeting sites that it believes are arms stores. At some point, Hezbollah commanders may conclude that they risk losing their weapons anyway if they don’t use them. Israel’s air defences could be partially overwhelmed, and a ground invasion into Lebanon would be all the more fraught when Israeli troops are still fighting in Gaza and increasing raids in the West Bank. All parties have calibrated their actions – and yet the slide towards a greater conflict, which might yet pull in Iran and the US, has gathered pace.
Hezbollah’s humiliation, and the damage sustained through the infiltration of its devices and killings of leaders and commanders, have made it harder for the group to step back without destroying its credibility. It has made a ceasefire in Gaza a non-negotiable condition for ending attacks. But far from de-escalating there, Mr Netanyahu is considering a plan to force hundreds of thousands of Palestinian civilians out of northern Gaza and besiege Hamas militants to force the release of hostages.
The US is no longer claiming that a ceasefire and hostage release deal is within sight. Tragically, it looks even more distant after the last few days. And as long as there is no deal in Gaza, there can be no solution to the north. This may suit Mr Netanyahu. But it threatens the direst consequences for civilians on both sides of the border, and for the region as a whole.
