“Gradually, then suddenly,” replies a character in Ernest Hemingway’s The Sun Also Rises, on being asked how he went bankrupt. Something to that effect has just been experienced by Scotland’s first minister, Humza Yousaf, who stood down on Monday after seeing his political currency dwindle to zero in a matter of days.
Less than a week after ending the Scottish National party’s pact with the Scottish Greens, which gave him his majority in Holyrood, Mr Yousaf fell on his sword after discovering that no viable plan B was available that included him at the helm. As he frankly admitted on Monday during an emotional press conference, Mr Yousaf grievously miscalculated in believing it would be possible to unexpectedly bin the cooperation agreement with the Greens, summarily dismiss the party’s co-leaders from his government, and then rely on their support for an SNP-minority administration. It was an inept piece of brinkmanship from a politician who, while clearly a decent man, has not convincingly navigated his party through ever-choppier waters following the resignation of Nicola Sturgeon last February.
Mr Yousaf will now stay on while the SNP seeks to appoint its third leader in 18 months. The newcomer will aim to rebuild the trust forfeited so recklessly last week, and lead a minority government into Holyrood elections in 2026. But after a period of near-complete hegemony lasting the best part of two decades, this latest bout of self-inflicted drama comes against a wider backdrop of serious political turbulence for the SNP. Amid a cost of living crisis, and with independence now seen as a medium-term aspiration rather than an immediate goal, its approach to domestic politics has risked being underpowered on some bread-and-butter issues and overly performative on others.
The departing first minister’s doomed attempt to reset his government was intended to preempt a revolt by the Greens over the scrapping of environmental targets. That followed a damaging assessment by the climate change committee, suggesting that the groundwork had not been done to achieve them. On core competencies such as education and public health – in relation to drug misuse, for example – there is considerable room for improvement after 17 years of SNP-led government. Meanwhile the Scottish government’s gender recognition reform bill – vetoed by Westminster – and its hate crime laws, which came into force this month, triggered high-profile culture wars that have alienated some key constituencies. Most seriously of all, the embezzlement charges brought this month against Ms Sturgeon’s husband, Peter Murrell, have inflicted lasting reputational damage that will cast a deep shadow over the coming general election.
Clearly, these accumulated problems cannot simply be laid at the departing first minister’s door. Mr Yousaf won the SNP leadership by presenting himself as the continuity candidate following Ms Sturgeon’s resignation. It was his misfortune that the past became a liability destined to haunt his brief period in office. His own departure reinforces the sense that an important inflection point in Scottish politics is being reached, 25 years after devolution was first introduced. According to polls, Labour is on course to make significant gains in Scotland when Rishi Sunak finally goes to the country. Tectonic plates may be shifting. As the SNP seeks to regain the political sure-footedness of old, its next leader will urgently need to seek their own version of the reset Mr Yousaf failed to achieve.
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