For observers of a progressive persuasion, Sunday’s Finnish election turned out to be an unwelcome repeat episode of Nordic noir. Last autumn, Sweden ejected a Social Democrat prime minister and installed a moderate Conservative successor, while at the same time empowering the radical right Sweden Democrats party. The same playbook may now be followed in Helsinki, after a cliffhanger vote delivered a similar electoral outcome.
The high-profile casualty of this rightwards shift was Finland’s millennial prime minister, Sanna Marin, who has been ousted four years after becoming the world’s youngest political leader. Though Ms Marin’s Social Democratic party actually improved its vote share, it narrowly came in third behind moderate conservatives and the radical right in what was a photo-finish. Her coalition government’s fate was sealed by a collapse in support for allied leftwing parties, as the centre-right successfully mobilised fears over state borrowing levels.
On security matters such as Finland’s accession to Nato and fierce support for Ukraine – both policies influenced by a 805-mile eastern border with Russia – little will now change, whatever the makeup of the new government. But the result means that the leader of the poll-topping National Coalition party (NCP), Petteri Orpo, has the option of pursuing a deficit-cutting coalition with the nationalist Finns party, the local iteration of Europe’s increasingly assertive radical right.
That is a cause for concern well beyond Finland’s borders. In the wake of the pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine, there are signs that economic anxiety and a cost of living crisis is shifting the compass of European politics on to a more insular and less environmentally ambitious trajectory. Following the election of Giorgia Meloni as Italy’s prime minister, and events in Sweden, a “blue‑black” coalition in Finland would further normalise far‑right positions on issues such as climate targets and migration policy. Though the Finns party’s leader, the 45-year-old Riikka Purra, has distanced the party from the extreme rhetoric of the recent past (a predecessor was fined and convicted for inciting ethnic hatred), it remains vehemently opposed to non-EU immigration and committed to junking Finland’s pledge to achieve carbon neutrality by 2035.
Negotiations will take weeks. Mr Orpo – who hopes to address Finland’s acute labour shortages through pro-immigration measures, and supports the country’s net zero targets – may yet seek to do a deal with the social democrats, forging a cross‑spectrum “blue-red” alliance. Those who fear the general hardening of a “Fortress Europe” mentality and a growing pattern of evasion on climate goals must hope that he does.
Whatever the eventual outcome, Ms Marin will be missed on the world stage. Despite suffering intrusive and often sexist scrutiny of her private life and behaviour, she remained a hugely popular figure both domestically and abroad, while pursuing an authentically social democratic and egalitarian agenda. Having assumed leadership of a coalition in which all five parties were led by women, she was accomplished in her handling of the Covid pandemic and the crisis that followed Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine. And like her onetime political ally, the former New Zealand prime minister Jacinda Ardern, she became a role model for aspirant and actual female politicians. Her departure from office in itself feels like a harbinger of less optimistic and expansive times.
