Before voters in Iowa kicked off the US presidential election cycle on Monday, Donald Trump shared a bizarre campaign video on his Truth Social platform that declared him to be God’s chosen emissary on Earth, sent to deliver prosperity to America. It seemed unlikely that evangelicals in a rural state would buy into such narcissism. Sadly, Mr Trump has blinded believers to the means and fixed their gaze on the ends. Despite being charged with 91 felonies in four criminal cases, he won an unprecedented majority of Republican caucus-goers.
The rest of the Republican electorate doesn’t always follow Iowa’s lead. This, however, is a small comfort. In 2016, Mr Trump lost out to Ted Cruz in the state before winning his party’s nomination with a mendacious, racist, misogynistic campaign that encouraged violence and dealt in the politics of personal insult. His spell in office did not mellow him. His 2024 campaign picked up where his last one ended – by brazenly attempting to use his efforts to overturn the 2020 election result as a rallying cry.
It is an ominous portent that he had persuaded voters, especially religious ones, that it was better to win with vice than to lose with virtue. After Iowa, Mr Trump hopes the media will amplify the message that his coalition of support within the Republican party will crush those seeking to rescue it from his grip. To reset the conversation would need Mr Trump to lose the New Hampshire primary – an unlikely outcome, as he maintains an average double-digit lead over his nearest rival, Nikki Haley.
For the former US president, there’s no such thing as bad publicity. Fresh from his Iowa victory, Mr Trump arrived at a Manhattan court hearing over a $10m damages claim sought by the writer E Jean Carroll for defaming her after she accused him of raping her nearly three decades ago. Mr Trump aims to use his upcoming criminal trials as opportunities to claim headlines and public attention. In lashing out at prosecutors, judges and Democrats, Mr Trump wants to look strong – and make his opponents look weak. It is a battle of image, not of substance, to sustain a cult of personality.
If Mr Trump turns out the Republican party vote, he also turns out his Democratic opposition. This electoral reaction saw Mr Trump lose the 2020 election. It led the Republicans to do unexpectedly badly in the 2022 midterms and delivered strong results for Democrats in special elections last year. Post-Covid, the US economy has recovered in the sense that the majority of Americans are better off financially now than they were before the pandemic. But the pessimism in consumer sentiment lingers. That might explain why polls find voters glum about Joe Biden. There is some good news: Mr Biden is running neck and neck with his predecessor in recent surveys of voting intention.
American democracy is uncertain to survive another four years of Mr Trump in office. Mr Trump didn’t create the hostilities found in the US. He just ruthlessly exploits them for his selfish needs. Increasing polarisation is a recipe for political paralysis as parties become more interested in stopping the other side winning than in solving problems. Democrats are right to warn that 2024’s likely rematch for the White House will be a battle for the nation’s soul. The current president wants to restore the old norms of stable, civil politics. Mr Trump wants to destroy them. As things stand, the stakes could not be higher this November.
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