There are bodies on the streets, hundreds of thousands of civilians fleeing and overwhelmed hospitals draining fuel from ambulances to keep respirators running. The rapidly escalating conflict in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) – which has seen rocketing sexual violence, the execution of children and the displacement of 400,000 people this year alone – has just exploded with the M23 rebel group’s seizure of Goma, in the east.
Their advance comes thanks to backing from Rwanda, despite the coyness of the Rwandan president, Paul Kagame. Mr Kagame suggests that M23 is defending the country’s Tutsis, victims of Rwanda’s 1994 genocide, against an armed group set up by former genocidal killers. But the threat those fighters pose appears greatly exaggerated: analysts believe the real aim is to seize mineral-rich territory. There is a striking parallel with Russia’s tactics in eastern Ukraine in 2014. On Wednesday, Rwandan troops were seen heading towards Bukavu, another key city, with the M23 fighters.
Mr Kagame, in power since 2000, won last year’s election with more than 99% of the vote. Despite his authoritarian regime’s record of human rights abuses, the west has embraced him as a key partner who stabilises the region. He has turned aid into economic growth and offered to take asylum seekers off European hands. He sent troops to battle jihadist militants in Mozambique, a rich source of gas, and Rwanda supplies valuable minerals for smartphones, electric vehicles, renewable energy infrastructure and other purposes.
Campaigners heavily criticised the EU for signing a strategic minerals deal with the country last year, given that many of those supplies clearly don’t originate in Rwanda. Europe has sidelined human rights concerns. The trade in minerals finances arms purchases, fuelling the fighting.
There are concerns that ethnic violence could reignite. Diplomats fear that Rwanda may hope to topple the Burundi government. Some wonder if the DRC may seek help from the United Arab Emirates and Russia. The risk of a regional conflagration cannot easily be dismissed: conflict in the late 90s and early 2000s claimed millions of lives.
Attacks on embassies in Kinshasa this week show that many in the DRC are angered by the role of outsiders. Kenya and Angola have acted as mediators. But East African leaders have failed to prioritise the crisis as it has escalated. The DRC president Félix Tshisekedi’s poor relations with his neighbours and suspicion that they lean to Mr Kagame do not lend themselves to a solution, while Mr Kagame is wary of African Union mediation. He stayed away from talks last week but is keener to come to the table now that facts on the ground have shifted in his favour – while Mr Tshisekedi said he would sit out yesterday’s Wednesday’s virtual crisis summit. Further complicating matters, Mr Tshisekedi is unpopular at home, with strong suspicions that he plans to ditch term limits.
This crisis has shown the folly of treating Kigali as a guarantor of regional stability. Germany has sent a welcome signal by suspending aid talks with Rwandan officials. Other European nations and the US should follow suit. Sanctions and travel bans could also be adopted to press for an end to fighting and the creation of humanitarian corridors. Countries are finally calling out Rwanda over its role in this disaster. But with so many lives at stake, more than words are required.
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