A trio of byelections in England was good news for the main party leaders but not necessarily for their parties. Rishi Sunak can breathe a little easier for not losing three seats. The Tory party, however, will be worried about being defeated in bluest Britain. Sir Keir Starmer has shown he can win in a Conservative heartland, as New Labour did in 1997, overturning a 20,000-seat majority in North Yorkshire. However, his party’s failure to win in London raises doubts about its electoral strategy. Voters seem to be saying that the Conservative party deserves to lose at the next election, but the Labour party doesn’t – yet – deserve to win outright.
Thursday’s votes might be less than they seem. Turnout in these byelections was low: on average 25% below that in the 2019 general election. Party loyalists often see them as a protest vote. At the next election, Britain’s political map will also be redrawn. Of this week’s three byelection seats, only Uxbridge and South Ruislip will be largely as it is today.
Most Conservative MPs will look at the results and think their career prospects have worsened. They will be concerned by the anti-Tory tactical voting from both Labour and Liberal Democrat supporters in all three byelections. The Liberal Democrats’ win in Somerton and Frome suggests the party has opened up a second front in England’s rural south‑west against the Conservatives, distinct from the “blue wall” suburban south-eastern seats. The Greens’ third place in all three seats ought to ring alarm bells. The party received 10% of the vote in Somerset. Had its supporters backed Labour in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Mr Sunak would have become the first prime minister since Harold Wilson in 1968 to lose three byelections in a day.
Labour’s failure to win the London seat is not the fault of Sadiq Khan, the capital’s mayor, or his ultra‑low emission zone. It was a strategic error by the Labour leadership to go into a byelection without a plan to make the switch to cleaner cars affordable for people hit by a cost of living crisis. This would be made possible by extending windfall taxes to pay for enhanced scrappage schemes, which lower the cost of replacement vehicles; investing in public transport; rolling out electric charging stations; and widening exemptions for vulnerable households.
The Conservatives have directed local authorities to charge drivers to clean up the air but have not, in many cases, provided adequate funding to insulate drivers from the transition. Notably, Manchester’s mayor, Andy Burnham, has held out by arguing that investment is necessary before pricing the dirtiest vehicles off the road. Rather than confront the government, Sir Keir embraced the Tory framing that Labour could not win “power by spending”.
He has also sought to make a virtue of running against his party’s instincts: picking a needless fight over a cruel benefit cut that increased poverty and cosying up to Sir Tony Blair, who is unpopular with many of Labour’s rank and file. These gestures might lose more votes than they could gain. The country is in a mess, with public services broken. There are good reasons for not voting for Mr Sunak, who has no obvious plan to fix Britain. At this weekend’s national policy forum, Sir Keir should offer compelling reasons for voting Labour. Policies will be needed to convert increasing disenchantment with the Conservatives into electoral support.
