On Sunday, Brazilian electors will cast their vote in a tight contest that will not only set the course for this extraordinarily polarised country but also have a powerful impact on the future of the world. Hopes that the far-right incumbent, Jair Bolsonaro, would be decisively rejected in the first round were dashed when he fared far better than expected, with 43% of votes, and his challenger, the former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, fell just short of an outright majority with 48%. Eleventh-hour handouts to the poorest and lavish quantities of disinformation have aided Mr Bolsonaro’s recovery.
The hope is that his momentum is already fading. But the polls vary, and a second presidential term would be bad news not just for Brazilians but also the rest of us. The primary danger is climate catastrophe. As the UN’s environment agency warns that there is no credible route to limit global warming to 1.5C, deforestation in the Amazon is at a high: a carbon sink could become a carbon emitter. Criminal syndicates of loggers and ranchers race to do their worst for fear that a new administration will rein them in. More than 2bn trees have been felled during Mr Bolsonaro’s term in office. He has also fostered an increasingly dangerous culture for environmental defenders – as exposed by the murder of the activist Bruno Pereira and the Guardian contributor Dom Phillips this June. In contrast, analysts suggest a victory for Lula could see an 89% cut in rainforest loss.
A secondary – but still deeply alarming – risk is of a further entrenchment of anti-democratic authoritarianism. If Mr Bolsonaro is re-elected, he will be emboldened, and will benefit from the strengthened rightwing presence in Congress. There are fears that he could undermine institutions and change the constitution to allow himself a third term.
If he isn’t re-elected, will he care? He has spent months preparing for such an outcome. His son already claims – without evidence – that his father is the victim of “the greatest electoral fraud ever seen”, an eerily Trumpian phrase. His party claims – again without evidence – that officials could simply alter results. Because pro-Lula regions are likely to declare results later, he might attempt to claim victory prematurely.
All this raises the spectre of Brazil’s own January 6 – possibly with some support from elements of the army and security forces in a country that experienced military dictatorship relatively recently. Many of Mr Bolsonaro’s supporters have made it clear that they will not recognise a defeat at the polls. Gun ownership has doubled thanks to his relaxation of laws. Last Sunday, one of his political allies attacked police with hand grenades and a rifle as they tried to arrest him.
To Lula’s supporters, the former shoeshine boy and trade unionist is the champion of the poor, as well as a leader who raised the country’s status internationally. Others note that it was easier for him to boost spending as the beneficiary of the commodities boom. His Workers’ party was rife with corruption, which saw him jailed too; he was only able to stand when the charges against him were quashed last year. Yet Mr Bolsonaro is dishing out billions from a government fund with minimal oversight, and there are plenty of questions over his own family’s finances.
This looks, as one polling expert puts it, like a clash of two Brazils, in which the vote splits clearly on class, race, gender and religious lines. Even if Mr Bolsonaro is seen off this time, he may well be back. Yet his extremism has helped ensure that Lula has pulled together a convincing multi-party alliance, including figures from the right. They recognise what is at stake. The rest of us must hope that enough of their compatriots do.
