In the wake of the carnage wrought by Hamas in southern Israel, killing at least 1,300 people; with bombs still raining upon Gaza, having killed more than 3,000; and with 199 children and adults still held hostage, the horror is increased by the prospect of this violence begetting more.
The US hopes two aircraft carrier groups in the eastern Mediterranean, non-stop shuttle diplomacy by the secretary of state and a presidential visit to Israel will see off the twin spectres of even greater humanitarian disaster in Gaza and regional catastrophe. Yet hours before Joe Biden’s trip to the Middle East came reports that hundreds had died in a blast on a Gaza hospital. Jordan has already cancelled its summit with him. While visiting Israel sends the message that the US is a staunch ally, and may offer Benjamin Netanyahu a political lifeline, it was intended to rein him in, as well as Hezbollah and Iran. The US had reportedly agreed to the trip only after Israel agreed to move on humanitarian aid and safe areas for civilians to avoid the bombing.
But the statement that the two countries will “develop a plan” for delivery is noticeably modest. Even if implemented, it might not hold. Though Israel told the US it would restore the water supply to southern Gaza on Monday, those on the ground report only tiny quantities getting through. And while aid is essential, delivering food and medicines is hard to do and of limited use while air strikes continue.
More critical may be the fact that the US, with its own disasters in Afghanistan and Iraq in mind, is pressing Israel to think hard about its plan for Gaza. President Biden warned publicly on Sunday that occupying Gaza would be a mistake. At that point, a ground incursion was regarded as imminent. But his visit has pressed pause, and on Tuesday, the IDF spokesperson Richard Hecht remarked: “Everyone’s talking about the ground offensive. It might be something different.”
What happens in Gaza is likely to determine what happens in the north. On Monday, Israel gave an unprecedented order for residents close to the Lebanon border to evacuate south. The area has already seen rocket and missile attacks and border skirmishes. Hezbollah and Israel have trodden carefully since the 2006 war, for which Lebanese civilians mostly paid, though the militant group has built up its fire power and tested the boundaries. But Hezbollah has indicated that it has two red lines: the forcible displacement of large numbers of Palestinians outside Gaza – though Egypt has made it clear it does not want them – and a ground invasion aiming to destroy Hamas: Israel’s stated intention. Behind Hezbollah stands Iran; its foreign minister has warned of “multiple fronts” opening against Israel if it continues to kill civilians in Gaza.
Iran does not want to lose Hezbollah, its main proxy force. But nor does it want to see Hamas wiped out. If that looks likely, experts suggest that it would probably also ask Iraqi militias to deploy to Syria or Lebanon. Washington has sent clear warnings to Tehran to stay out of it, while also indicating that it is not looking for a fight. The danger is that while neither the US nor Iran want to be drawn in further, the dynamics on the ground have their own momentum.
The US and other governments believed that the conflict at the heart of the Middle East was unsolvable but manageable, and could be sidelined. Many warned at the time that was wrong. It appears all the more impossible to manage now – and yet that is precisely why the US and others must attempt to do so.
