“There are decades in which nothing happens, and weeks in which decades happen.” That aphorism, misattributed to Lenin and repeatedly cited by Steve Bannon, might have been coined for the last seven days. A single week in the US has encompassed the attempted assassination of Donald Trump, his acceptance of the Republican presidential nomination at a triumphalist convention, and reports that Joe Biden – struck down by Covid – is contemplating quitting his re-election bid amid mounting pressure from senior Democrats.
Look back only two weeks further and the political picture encompasses the disastrous debate that began the frenzy over Mr Biden’s candidacy, the supreme court’s momentous ruling on immunity, which transformed the relationship between president and people, and the shocking dismissal of the criminal case against Mr Trump over classified documents.
No wonder the mood at the Republican national convention felt more like an election night celebration to some observers. The party feels invincible, drunk on the contrast between the images of a Covid-stricken, stumbling president Biden and his bloodied but death-defying, fist-pumping predecessor. Even as Mr Trump took to the stage in Milwaukee, there were growing reports of senior Democrats making it clear that they didn’t believe Mr Biden can win. His campaign’s insistence on Friday that he was staying in the race failed to staunch calls for him to quit. There has been a spate of reports that he could step down following interventions from key party figures, concerned not only about the White House but also down-ballot races.
Replacing Mr Biden would not be a guaranteed fix, still less a quick one. The most likely scenario appears to be that the party would coalesce around his vice-president, Kamala Harris. Democrats hope that, at 59, she could turn the question of age against 78-year-old Mr Trump. But his choice of 39-year-old JD Vance as vice-presidential nominee would make that harder, and it would be hard for Ms Harris to run as the change candidate against a former president when she is in the White House. The bigger stage might allow her to shine and improve her unimpressive poll ratings, but the racist and misogynistic attacks against her would surely intensify. The alternative, an open convention, might seize the spotlight back from the Republicans and create momentum in a reinvigorated Democratic campaign. Yet it could also leave the party without a breakout star, but with Ms Harris and other plausible candidates dented by their attacks on each other.
As November approaches, dread grows among Democrats and those who fear a second Trump administration and all that it might bring. Mr Trump has proved astonishingly impervious to scandal and even criminal conviction (only two months ago). Nonetheless, he is strikingly unpopular and victory remains in the hands of a relatively small number of voters in a small number of states. His interminable acceptance speech began with a soothing message of unity but soon veered back into familiar lies, grievances, preposterous claims about his abilities and achievements and invective about an “invasion” by migrants.
For some Democrats, at least, it was not only a reminder of why he must be beaten, but that he still can be. As a candidate, he is not unstoppable. Should he regain power, the supreme court has ensured that he might be. There are still three and a half months to go. His opponents cannot afford to despair; they must use every moment to their advantage.
