Upcoming special elections for the U.S. House in Texas and Ohio will serve as a barometer of just how powerful former President Donald Trump’s endorsement — currently the most coveted in Republican politics — is six months after leaving office.
In his ongoing effort to cement his status as the leader of the GOP, Trump has intervened in otherwise under-the-radar intraparty contests set to take place in Texas’ 6th congressional district on Tuesday and Ohio’s 15th congressional district on Aug. 3. By doing so, he has pitted himself against some prominent national and local Republicans who are backing other candidates in the races.
Republicans around the country will be closely watching the results of those special elections to gauge Trump’s broader influence within the party when he does not possess the megaphone he once did heading into the 2022 midterm elections.
“In a Republican primary, he’s still the gold standard. Not everywhere, but just about everywhere,” Tom Davis, a former chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, said of Trump. “Now I think that diminishes each day. He’s off the air. Other people are filling that void.”
Given Trump’s overwhelming popularity in the GOP, Republican operatives say his hand-picked candidates in Texas and Ohio are in a strong position. But they note that off-year special elections typically attract little attention from voters and are unpredictable, and that other Republicans in those races have remained competitive without the former president’s stamp of approval.
Trump first endorsed conservative activist Susan Wright in the Texas race ahead of the all-party primary on May 1. She ultimately emerged from a 23-candidate field to face off against GOP state Rep. Jake Ellzey Tuesday in the runoff election, which any voter can participate in regardless of party affiliation. The winner will fill the seat opened by the death of Wright’s husband, Rep. Ronald Wright, due to complications related to COVID-19 in February.
Some prominent Republicans have followed Trump’s lead and supported Wright, including Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Tex. But several notable Republicans have lined up behind Ellzey, such as former Energy Secretary and Texas Gov. Rick Perry and Rep. Dan Crenshaw, R-Tex.
Ellzey has managed to raise more than twice as much money as Wright. But the Washington-based conservative group Club for Growth has helped make up for that, spending more than $1 million on ads to boost Wright, according to a spokesman. Several of the ads have mentioned Trump’s endorsement.
Trump has gone all in for Wright in the final stretch of the race. He released three statements in July reaffirming that Wright has his “Complete and Total Endorsement.” He recorded a robocall for Wright over the weekend, identifying himself as “your hopefully all-time favorite president.” His super PAC launched an ad on Wright’s behalf. And he held a tele-town hall for Wright Monday evening.
“The only way to stop Joe Biden from running our great country right into the ground is to elect conservatives like Susan Wright,” Trump says in the robocall.
There hasn’t been any public polling on the race, but Wright’s campaign released an internal survey showing her leading Ellzey by 10 percentage points.
In Ohio, Trump endorsed former energy lobbyist Mike Carey in the 11-candidate GOP primary in early June. Trump released a statement in mid-July saying Carey, who narrowly leads the field in fundraising, is “doing really well against the gang of RINOs,” shorthand for Republicans in Name Only.
Former GOP Rep. Steve Stivers, who stepped down from the 15th district seat earlier in the year to become the president and CEO of the Ohio Chamber of Commerce, is backing state Rep. Jeff LaRae in the race. Sen. Rand Paul, R-Ky., a Trump ally, endorsed former state Rep. Ron Hood. And Debbie Meadows, the wife of former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows, is supporting former Columbus NAACP president Ruth Edmonds through her Right Women PAC.
No public surveys on the Ohio race have been released. Carey’s campaign released a private poll in late June showing him leading the competition by double digits, crediting Trump’s endorsement. The Ohio district is solidly Republican, so whichever candidate wins the primary will be heavily favored in the general election.
“These special elections tend to be pretty low turnout affairs. It’s rare to get national attention,” said Matt Gorman, a former communications director for the NRCC. “Anything a candidate can do to get a boost is going to be a big value add.”
TRUMP’S ENDORSEMENT RECORD
Since his tenure in the White House ended, Trump has issued 24 endorsements for elections taking place in 2021 and 2022, according to the campaign tracking site Ballotpedia.
One of those elections took place in March in Louisiana’s 5th congressional district, a seat that was left open after Republican Luke Letlow died from COVID-related complications late last year. His widow, Julia Letlow, won the solidly GOP seat after securing Trump’s endorsement.
Trump boasted a solid record in contested GOP primaries for House and Senate in the 2020 election cycle. Just two of his endorsed candidates out of 23 failed to advance to the general election, Ballotpedia’s tally shows.
Trump is poised to get involved in even more intraparty races down the road, particularly as he seeks vengeance against the Republican incumbents who voted against him in the impeachment proceedings earlier this year over his role in the Jan. 6 Capitol riots.
The former president released a statement saying that he would be meeting this week with potential primary challengers to Wyoming Rep. Liz Cheney, one of the most outspoken Republican critics of Trump in Congress.
Even as several Republicans have made the trek to visit Trump in person to pitch him on their campaigns, the former president’s endorsement so far hasn’t necessarily cleared a path for his candidate in every race.
In addition to Texas’ 6th congressional district, the Trump-backed candidates in the Alabama, Alaska and North Carolina GOP primaries for Senate were outraised by one of their opponents in the second quarter of the year.
“Trump’s endorsement to me has never been a precursor to a massive fundraising haul. It’s more of a precursor to political support,” said Mike DuHaime, a veteran GOP strategist. “Trump’s endorsement is more about primary voters themselves than the money.”
While Trump’s endorsement will be welcome in many GOP primaries, Republicans running in battleground races may be forced to walk a fine line in the general election, as polls show more Americans still view Trump unfavorably than favorably.
“In a primary, you’d rather have it than not,” Davis, the former NRCC chair, said of Trump’s endorsement. “In the general, it’s a very mixed bag.”
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