The first half of the Buck Showalter experiment has been a smashing success. But the first half of the season went well for Luis Rojas in 2021, too, before the roof caved in and sent the ex-manager packing.
There’s a long way to go for these Mets, but things sure feel a lot different than they have in the past. Entering a momentous second half of the season, the Mets only have a few things to worry about, rather than the typical laundry list of ailments, adversity and arrests.
5. Is regression coming for McNeil and Nimmo?
Here are some duos that Jeff McNeil and Brandon Nimmo have outperformed, according to Wins Above Replacement: Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez, Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and George Springer.
The Mets are getting insane production from McNeil (who recently made his second trip to the All-Star Game) and Nimmo (who probably should have joined him.) Always regarded as fine players with solid upside, very few people could have realistically seen this type of season, which has put them ahead of several household names in multiple important categories.
The question now becomes whether they can keep it up. Historically, Nimmo’s offensive numbers improve after the All-Star break — he owns an .851 career OPS in the second half compared to .802 in the first — while McNeil’s batting average dips and slugging percentage soars.
A large part of Nimmo’s value this season has come from his underrated defense in center field. Defense is typically the only part of the game that’s slump-proof, but if either his or McNeil’s bat begins to fade, the Mets’ lineup looks much more exploitable as the games increase in importance.
4. Can Atlanta keep pace?
Those pesky Braves.
Last year at the All-Star break, the Mets were in first place, resting 4.5 games ahead of the sub-.500 team from Atlanta. The Braves eventually got the last laugh, enjoying a second half for the ages that propelled them all the way to the World Series.
This year at the All-Star break, the Mets are just 2.5 games up on the Braves, a team that slammed into the break with a 33-11 record in June and July. With 12 more games between these teams still on the schedule, the opportunity for the Mets to either pull away or the Braves to leapfrog them will be plentiful.
Many of the players on the field are different, and the Mets’ entire coaching staff has essentially turned over, too. But the history is there, and that won’t be lost on either side, who will soon renew their pleasantries with a five-game series at Citi Field during the first weekend of August.
3. Who is the DH down the stretch?
It’s rare for a baseball team to be truly devoid of any weakness. Even with a 58-35 record, the 2022 Mets are still no exception.
The team needs a reliable designated hitter, badly. For the uninformed, the team’s collection of DH’s have a .208 average, .317 slugging percentage and just six home runs. Help may, and if we’re being blunt, must be on its way by the Aug. 2 trade deadline. There’s no shortage of options out there, and a facelift at the vital position is perhaps the simplest way for the Mets to go from a fearsome squad to a potential death machine.
Orioles’ mainstay Trey Mancini has been linked to the Mets for a while now, but with the O’s only 3.5 games out of a Wild Card spot all of a sudden, the Baltimore front office may be more reluctant to move Mancini than they were a month ago. Big brutes Josh Bell and Daniel Vogelbach would be fun, but maybe not the most practical, while a reunion with former Met Brandon Drury would be the most feel-good story if it all goes well.
Of course, if they really want to shake things up, the Mets could turn their trade deadline sights elsewhere and call up Francisco Alvarez to be the DH. To be clear, this is not very likely, and would be the most reckless course of action for the 20-year-old who’s only played eight games above Double-A. But sometimes desperate times call for desperate measures, and if Billy Eppler can’t find a solid trade to bolster the lineup, a tantalizing option is sitting right there in Syracuse.
2. What do you get from Jacob deGrom, and when?
Under the cover of the All-Star break, the Mets announced that deGrom was feeling some soreness in his shoulder, which pushed the simulated game he was scheduled to pitch to Thursday.
That is, obviously, alarming news. While the nature of the injury doesn’t sound too bad, the Mets have been down this road far too many times with their prized pony. With deGrom, no news is always the best news, so even the slightest whisper about his body not cooperating is enough to signal the DEFCON alerts.
The Mets still hope to get him back at some point, and all indications are that he will be back once this setback is taken care of. But the difference between getting deGrom the Cy Young winner and deGrom the walking health scare could also be the difference between an NL pennant and a premature exit.
1. Is this a team of destiny?
The only time in Mets’ history that the club had a better record through 93 games than they do right now was in 1986. Does anyone remember how that year ended?
With the franchise finally giving Keith Hernandez his proper recognition by retiring his number, it’d be quite poetic for 2022 to end the same way that 1986 did for Hernandez and crew.
